Vyan

Showing posts with label Democratic Primary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Democratic Primary. Show all posts

Friday, May 16

Tbe Party isn't Broken and doesn't need "Fixing"

The Party is Changing for the Better.

It's taken me a bit of time to come to this conclusion. I've carefully considered the issue of post nomination Party Reconciliation and whether or not we may need to a Shotgun Marriage to repair the wounds that have been gouged into the Democratic Party by this Primary Season.

But I've finally realized we don't need to break out the spackle, silly putty and super glue in order to re-stitch the Democratic party back together. With Barack Obama's candidacy we ourselves are Becoming the Change that we need.

Hillary Clinton is a fine candidate, and a fine politician - but she is shown herself to clearly be a politician of the past with her use of divide and conquer, fear-mongering, crush and smear tactics.

It's time we moved away from that kind of politics, and that kind of country. It's time we embraced the future - and that future is President Barack Obama.


As thereisnospoon has handily pointed out today, this isn't about either sexism or racism.

Barack Obama will be the Democratic Nominee because he has repeatedly refused to pander to our worst instincts. He has refused to easily give into fear.

No, he didn't do the proper political thing and toss Jeremiah Wright under the Mid-town Express at the first opportunity. He let Jeremiah blow himself up.

No, he didn't immediately assume that we should show "strength" either by jumping into a ill-advised and unnecessary war, or by keeping everyone we disagree with at arms length as if simply having a conversation and attempting to find common ground (Like Kennedy with Krushchev, Nixon in China and Reagan with Gorbachev) is in and of itself some kind of grand concession and some sign of "weakness" or some silly misappropriated version of appeasment.

No, he didn't sign on with an idiotic gas-tax holiday plan, because he had the experience to know that it wasn't going to deliver the consumer savings it promised.

On each of these issues and many more he shown better judgement, and better respect for the intelligence of the American people than has Clinton. She and her campaign have deliberately pandered to ignorance, paranoia and fake outrage with "I would have walked out of that Church", "He's lucky to be a Black Man" when even they know damn well he isn't, "He's not a Muslim as far as I know..." and bragging that she "has the hard-working uneducated White Voters, that he can't get" - while he has not responded in kind. He's refused to be dragged down into that cesspool with her.

He has not stooped to her level.

Sure we need a President who is "tough", but I would prefer one who doesn't repeatedly and chronically gets "tough" about The Wrong Issues.

He has not tried to exploit our fear and anxiety or try to Bribe Us. Instead he has shown Courage and an abiding Faith in the American people and that's the kind of President we need.

We need a President who isn't going to have a "Senior Moment" over and over again between Sunni and Shia. Who knows the difference between someone (like the duly elected ruling party in Palestine) supporting you, and you supporting them. Whose idea of "Supporting our Troops" isn't to oppose bills that would do exactly that. Whose Primary campaign debts and promises aren't to lobbyists, corporations, Rangers, Super-Rangers or Cougars - but are to the American people themselves.

More than that we need a President whose idea of showing solidarity with our military families isn't to give up a golf, and then not actually give it up - we need a President with genuine courage.

For Courage is the ultimate cure for what ails us.

Courage is how we cure both Racism and Sexism. It takes courage to ignore what statistics might say about any particular type of individual, and what past experience might say - and to take them for who and what they actually are.

Courage is how we cure Terrorism. It takes courage to remove the primary power that a terrorist wields, fear of death, destruction and injury. If we can not be terrorized, their methods become useless and meaningless.

Courage is the Key.

We don't need to be afraid that the party won't heal itself, that we may have lost some of the Hillacrats forever as they wallow in self-pity over how we "beat up on their girl", yet ignore and justify all the jabs and cheap shots she and her campaign have dolled out. Let Hill court and keep the West Virginia Double-wide vote. The people who just can't bring themselves to vote for that black (muslim/anti-american) man.

If they're willing to embrace the change , embrace the future - they're welcome with us. If not we don't want 'em. We don't need 'em. Sorry but - Frack 'em.

We don't need to go begging on hands and knees for them to hold their nose and pretend to support our curly haired black-negro-man with the white mother, elitist, former food-stamp receiving, educated, school debt-having, orange-juice drinking, basket-ball playing, lousing bowling candidate. If they want to jump-ship and join the Republicans and vote for John McInsane, I'm sure Maverick and his good buddy Karl Iceman Rove will be happy to have them.

We have to realize that nominating and electing Barack Obama to the Presidency will send a shock-wave across this nation and across this world, one that will resonate for more deeply than even the passage of the original Civil Rights Act. Back then LBJ knew that Democrats would be losing the south for perhaps a generation or more. This time we might lose more than that, and we might gain far more as well.

Both in the long and the short run, it's going to be worth it.

This is the beginning of the New Democratic Party.

We have already begun the Change that Barack has spoken of, we have become that Change. Those who wish to join us and embrace that change are welcome to do so, those who do not are free to wallow in the cynicism, pandering, oppurtunism, manipulation and fear-mongering of the past.

We're done with all that, and are going This Way. Toward the Hope. Toward the Future.

Everyone else can either climb on for the ride or be left behind. I hope you can come along.

Vyan

Wednesday, May 14

The Primary Endgame: A Shotgun Wedding?

There's only one way this ends, and it's not going to be pretty. Hillary Clinton has deliberately driven a stake through the heart of the Democratic Party, and not because she's a sportman's and refuses to leave the field of play until the last whistle, it's because she want to position herself as completely indespesible to Barack Obama in the all.

She's been more than willing to pander and try and bribe the electorate with her gas tax holiday scheme. She's been willing to bait and pander to poor, ignorant West Virginian's like these...



Listen to this Hillacrat dreck, "Obama's a Muslim - he's doesn't know the Pledge of Allegiance or the Star Spangled Banner - he doesn't believe in America the way Hillary or McCain do..."

Why is Hillary willing to win on the back of this swill?

It can all only be for one reason.

I haven't yet found any video of this, but yesterday during the Primary Coverage on CNN, former NY Governor Mario Cuomo came on-air to talk about the likelyhood of a "Dreamticket" of Obama/Clinton.

He claimed... (not an exact transcription)

Cuomo: None of the reasons against it make sense.

Host: But what the idea that Barack Obama represents a change from the politics of the past, while Clinton represents the past?

Cuomo: Ok, that almost makes sense, but do you mean the past like the (Bill) Clinton Presidency? Where we had a $1.4 Trillion budget surplus, the best economy we've had in generations, people moving out of poverty...


Let's just get one thing straight, Hillary Clinton is not BILL Clinton. Simply because they happen to be married does not mean she will be implementing the same type of policies that he did. Such an assumption would be like thinking that George W Bush, would simply be a echo of his father - George H.W. Bush's - presidency.

We've all seen how that turned out haven't we.

The problem isn't that Hillary Clinton represents the return of Bill Clinton's past - she has clearly shown through this campaign that she truly represents the return and continuation of No-Holds Barred Karl Rove Politics.

She's willing to use anything, to scratch, claw and bite her way into the White House even though for several weeks she's had no mathematical pathway to get there. In fact, she shown more than a touch of the delusional - "I can make my own reality" politics that we've seen far too much of over the last 8 years.

Yes, she won West Virginia.

But there is no good reason to hyperventilate over the delegates that Hillary picked up yesterday. In the past week Barack Obama has gained more Superdelegats (37) than are even available from that entire state (28), meaning that since the previous primaries in North Carolina and Indiana she's actually lost ground to Obama even with winning in WV.

But that doesn't matter, what matters isn't the delegate count, it's the electoral map. As of today, the current state-by-state polls indicate the Clinton would defeat McCain by 280 to 241 Electoral Votes. That is based on these numbers.



Florida: Clinton 49% McCain 41%
Ohio: Clinton 48% McCain 38%
West Virginia : Clinton 47% McCain 42%

By contrast Obama is current in losing to McCain 237 to 290, whereas just a week ago they were in a virtual tie.



Obama was already losing in Florida, Ohio and West Virginia, but now he's also losing in Wisconsin and Michigan. That's not good.

I understand that Poblana numbers show Obama potentially winning by a landslide based on high turnout from youth and minority voters. But it's also true that the youth vote also tends to be unreliable, so betting the farm on the youth is a high-risk gamble for Barack.

Yes, there are many other reasons why this November could still be Tidal Wave for Obama, but they are all theoretical - and not yet concrete or proven.

The problem is that the Electoral Map does not LIE.

As it stand right now, Barack Obama is probably going to lose in November.

In order to prevent a McCain victory in November, Hillary Clinton has forced Obama into a position where he has to somehow reach the apparently unreachable between now and then. Those poor, uninformed, uneducated, blue-collar Democratic Voters in shown in the clip above have to be persuaded to Stay with the Democrats instead of bolting for McCain.

Hillary has remained in this race, not because she has any reasonable expectation that she's going to grab some landslide of Superdelegates willing to snatch the nomination away from Obama, but simply because she - and only she - may be able to bring Florida, Michigan, Ohio and yes, even Redneck infested West Virginia into the Democratic column and guarantee victory.

She's hoping for a Shotgun Wedding in Denver, and she'll get it if...

If..

And this is a BIG if... Barack Obama is willing to toss his own ideals and the core elements of his candidacy - Hope and Change - completely under the bus. Is he willing to take on a second-in-command who would play had hard, fast and loose as Clinton has played with "He's not a Muslim, as far as I know" and "He can't get the working-class White voters", and "He's an elitist who drinks orange juice" tactics. Is this how he answers the toughness question? Does he think he can use Clinton to kill the "experience" issue the way that Cheney did for Bush? Can he keep a snake on the leash in the West Wing, only to be released when and where he feels the need to twist and arm, or Pop a Cap in somebodies ass up Capitol Hill?

Is that a Role Hillary willing to play for the next 4-8 years? White House Pitt Bull?

I'm seriously beginning to think that it is, that she isn't playing to the Supers anymore - she's trying to make this case to Barack.

The question is: Does he have the stones to resist the temptation, put his faith in the youth, strap his own campaign to his shoulders without pandering to the Hillacrats and carry it across the finish line despite the mindfield that Clinton has put in his path?

I think he might, and if he does, it will be a glorious sight to behold.

Update Ok, I've heard a lot of arguments against this idea, some have said the polls don't mean anything even though there is a Rec'd Diary right now claiming Barack has a 7 point lead nationally on McCain, except that we don't elect the president nationally we use the electoral college, and it's from the same sources that electoral-vote.com uses, Quinnipiac - but the best one I think is the following.

Something else Cuomo said was that Obama can't get Hillary's voters and Hillary can't get his - so it makes sense for them to combine forces in his mind.

What he failed to realize is that if she's on the ticket there are people who won't vote for Barack anymore - and that many of her voters who vote for her even as Veep if Barack is at the top so it's not "Win/Win" it's "Lose/Lose"!!


The point being that if Obama falls for the trick, and I don't think he will, it'll massively hurt him in the fall, not help him. We're going to have to win this without the Hillacrats.

Vyan

Sunday, May 11

SNL: Hillary Makes her Case

From SNL: There's Something about Hillary.

"Unlike Senator Obama, I have no ethical standards. Even my critics would agree that once I get the nomination, I will stop at nothing--absolutely nothing--to win. Whereas, with Senator Obama, there are some things he simply will not do. Take, for example, the race card, which he has been reluctant to play. As in, 'anyone who doesn't vote for me, is a racist.' I, on the other hand, will be happy to play the gender card and claim that anyone who doesn't vote for me is a sexist. In fact, once Senator Obama is out of the picture, I look forward to playing the race card myself. As in, 'anyone who doesn't vote for me is both a sexist and a racist.'

Now for those of you who say, 'she'll never do that, it doesn't even make sense!' I answer, 'if you believe that, you don't know me.' So there you have it: sore loser, racist supporters, no ethical standards, qualities Senator Obama simply can't match."

Saturday, May 10

The Democratic Nominee is a Nig....?

We did this better in the 70's, didn't we?

Video (Warning:If you are humor-challenged or can't see the video, just stop reading now - your blood pressure will thank me later)


Ok, so let's just be the first to admit it. The Democratic Nominee for President in 2008 is a Nig....!

Just listen to Hillary Clinton.

“I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on,” she said in the interview, citing an article by The Associated Press.

It “found how Senator Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me.”

“There’s a pattern emerging here,” she said.


Oh, No she D'int!

Oh yeah. She did, but the funny part is that all she did her was repeat what the Press has been doing for months.
Just do a search on Yahoo News for "Obama, White Voters, Polls" and this is what you get.

1. >Obama Faces White Resistance In South, Polls Show - Politics on The ...
Obama Faces White Resistance In South, Polls Show - The Huffington Post ... Obama did less well among white voters nationally in a CBS poll released January ...
huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/19/obama-faces-white-resista_n_82300.html - 87k - Cached

2. Voters question Clinton's trustworthiness. - By Chadwick Matlin - Slate ...
... Times/CBS News poll says the country prefers Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton by 12 ... Six percent of Democratic primary voters think Obama is a Muslim. ...
www.slate.com/id/2175496 - Cached

3. Obama Support Among "Bitter" Voters Unchanged
... poll can help address the issue directly because it asks voters if ... to live in small towns, Obama probably had white voters in mind when he made his ...
gallup.com/poll/.../Obama-Support-Among-Bitter-Voters-Unchanged.aspx

4. Election Center 2008: Primary Exit Polls - Elections & Politics news ...
... .com delivers the latest exit polls for the Democratic and Republican ... The Political Ticker • Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • John McCain • more topics " ...
www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls - Cached

5. ABC News: White Working-Class vs. Change in Indiana
EXIT POLL: White Working-Class vs. Change in Indiana; Blacks Lift Obama to N.C. Victory ... 51 percent of voters picked it, and they went to Obama by about his ...
abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=4798314&page=1 - 94k

6. ABC News: PA exit polls: Whites, blue-collar voters stick with Clinton
Working-class white voters rallied around Hillary Rodham Clinton on Tuesday as ... Survivor: Clinton Closes In on Obama. WATCH: Rocky Road to the White House ...
abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=4706022 - 93k

7. Obama struggle to attract white voters continues
... in Denver is whether Obama's weakness with white voters could endure and spell ... The poll found that white voters who say equal rights for minorities have been ...
www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/18095979.html - 56k - Cached

8. Clinton Hangs On, Obama Drops in Polls, With Negative Media Attention ...
... well Clinton and Obama do relative to each other among White voters when each is ... percentage of White voters who will not vote for Obama based solely on ...
www.talkleft.com/story/2008/4/28/204817/799 - Cached

9. Voters agree Wright furor hurt Obama : Politics : Commercial Appeal
Black and white voters in next week's primary states agreed on one thing on Wednesday: Barack Obama's preacher had hurt the Democratic presidential candidate at a ...
commercialappeal.com/news/2008/may/01/road-to-the-white-house-voters... - Cached

10. Polls: Obama falters with working-class whites - Barack Obama News ...
... Barack Obama discusses his connection with working-class white voters with NBC's ... In exit polls, one in five of the state's white voters who haven't completed ...
www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24447399 - Cached


Far from being a taboo subject, this issue has been constantly debated since both Rev. Wright and Bitter-gate.

How does Obama win back the Springer Vote? How is he going to appeal to the Double-Wide Demographic?

Don't look so shocked, we all know what we're talking about here. White, Working-class, un and under-educated. C'mon. Where do you really think these people can afford to live? A condo? Who do you think Rush Limbaugh is talking to day in and day out?

Some of my best friends used to enjoy semi-mobile living conditions. Really.

Anywho...

The sad part about this discussion isn't the fact that it's being discussed, it's that it's being portrayed as some kind of failure on Barack's part! instead of the very obvious implication that we still, even in the 21st Century, have some dumb-ass reactionary redneck's left in this country.

Again, don't get all offended - isn't that the core idea behind Jeff Foxworthy's entire career?

    You might be a Redneck if...?

    You won't vote for the Black man for President, even when he's the best candidate, he's won the popular vote, he's (practically) won the delegate vote and he's won the most states.


I thought that was the entire point behind CMT. and "Blue-Collar TV"?

Instead of asking, gee - what the hell is wrong with these people? - the press has been putting all the blame in Barack's lap?

And now that Hillary is echoing them, people are up in arms?

    Oh my God, the Sherrif Nominee is a Nig...!


Just figuring that out now are ya? Very astute. But Guess what...

    Oh my God, the Country's Full of Ignorant Red-Necks too...!


Which of course, according to the Press, would be Clinton's base.

But here's the really interesting thing that the Press and Hillary haven't said, something that our own DemfromCT pointed out last week.

Since July 2006, long before both Bitter-Gate and Rev. Wrong, Barack Obama's favorability has actually maintained a net 5 points gain in support from White Voters, Hillary has lost 36 points from the Black Vote.



I wonder why the Press doesn't ask "What in the world is Hillary going to do about her Black Voter problem?"

Instead we get all this blather about how we're supposed to expect Black people to vote not based on issues, or facts, but skin color.

    Y'know - cause they're just naturally racist. They see everything through the prism of color. It's in their blood, don't cha know?


Never mind the fact that both Bill and Hillary used to have massive support Black Voters. Why doesn't the Press ask - What went wrong sour between Hill and Black people?

Oh wait, they did ask that and the answer was - Bill.

But White people, when they reject a perfectly good Black candidate it's got nothing to do with race - except for everything! You see, he's too leftist and radical (A hidden Black Panther), he's too elitist (Uppity!), Educated (Effete!), and he' too damn Muslim (Barack Hussein Obama - Farrakhan and Hamas' new Puppet President!) and we shouldn't bother to call them out on it. No, don't even think about it. Don't get them all riled up by saying they're "bitter" or anything...

That's like tossing raw meat at a starving dog.

For those who can't take a hint: /Snark Off!

It's about time we started realizing that we have some big big problems in this country and it's not all the black peoples fault, nor is it all the white peoples fault. It's our fault if we let ourselves be manipulated in this way. If we fail to see the obvious. If we let injustice happen in our laps and just brush it away.

We need to admit that Racism for a minority of say 17% of Democratic Voters in the South has become acceptable. It's expected now.

We have to do better than this. This isn't just Barack's problem, it's a problem for all of us.

We need to get enraged and fight back not just because Hillary repeats this nonsense, we need to fight back All the Time when the media repeatedly attempts to pit us all against each other.

We need to fight fear with truth.

Black people are not slaves to their skin-tone, and White people - even the "uneducated" ones - are a lot smarter and a lot less racist and reactionary than everyone from ABC to FOX seems to think.

Barack can get the White Vote back, in fact he's already started to - and if Hillary keeps insulting her own "base", she's going to lose all of it.

Vyan

Monday, May 5

Obama Voted for the Gas Tax Holiday in Illinois

and it didn't fraking work.

Wanna hear some straight talk &trade, here's what Obama admitted yesterday on Meet the Press.

As an Illinois Senator Barack Obama voted for a gas tax holiday, and at the end of the summer they found that Consumer's didn't save a penny!


I told you a couple days ago that the Gas Tax Holiday was nothing more than a cheap Bribe.

I"m keeping this short because Barack says everything that needs to be said here.

MR. RUSSERT: One issue that has really defined the two campaigns here in Indiana is this debate over gasoline...

SEN. OBAMA: Right.

MR. RUSSERT: ...the price of it and whether there should be a tax holiday...

SEN. OBAMA: Right.

MR. RUSSERT: ...from the federal taxes. This is Hillary Clinton's ad talking about you. Let's watch.

(Videotape of political ad)

Narrator: Now gas prices are skyrocketing, and she's ready to act again. Hillary's plan, use the windfall profits of the oil companies to pay to suspend the gas tax this summer. Barack Obama says no, again.

People are hurting, it's time for a president who's ready to take action now.

(End videotape)

MR. RUSSERT: Why are you against giving taxpayers in Indiana, North Carolina, a relief from federal gasoline tax this summer?

SEN. OBAMA: You're right, Tim, this defines, I think, the difference between myself and Senator Clinton. This gas tax, which was first proposed by John McCain and then quickly adopted by Senator Clinton, is a classic Washington gimmick. It, it is a political response to a serious problem that we have neglected for decades. Now, here's, here's the upshot. You're looking at suspending a gas tax for three months. The average driver would save 30 cents per day for a grand total of $28. That's assuming that the oil companies don't step in and raise prices by the same amount that the tax has been reduced. And, by the way, I have some experience on this because in Illinois we tried this when I was in the state legislature, and that's exactly what happened. The oil companies, the retailers were the ones who ended up benefiting.

MR. RUSSERT: You voted for it, too.

SEN. OBAMA: I did. Exactly. And that...

MR. RUSSERT: When gas was only $2 a gallon.

SEN. OBAMA: And, and that's my point. I voted for it, and then six months later we took a look, and consumers had not benefited at all, but we had lost revenue.

MR. RUSSERT: So you learned from a wrong vote.

SEN. OBAMA: Yeah, I learned from a mistake.

Barack Obama made a mistake and learned from it. He gained the benefit of Experience (Ding Ding Ding!) on this issue, and instead of continuing to give the people empty meaningless Happy Talk about it, he's telling the truth.

The Gas Tax Holiday is not going to work.

What's worse, it won't be paid for...

Obama: And, in addition, what happens is, is that this would come out of the Federal Highway Fund that we use to rebuild our roads and our bridges. And if we don't have that fund, then we're looking at thousands of jobs being lost in Indiana and in North Carolina.

Now, Senator Clinton says that she's going to use the windfall profits tax to fill it. First of all, she's already said that she's going to use the windfall profits tax for something else, as I have, and, and that is to invest in clean energy and, and other important measures. So that money, she's already spending twice. More importantly, nobody thinks that George Bush is actually going to spend--or is actually going to sign a law for windfall profits taxes, so that's not going to happen this summer.

So what this is, is a strategy to get through the next election. And Senator Clinton's own staff told The Washington Post, "We don't think this is really going to go anywhere. We don't think it's going to work, but we think it's a good issue to use in a campaign." And that's what Washington does. We, we, we don't deal with the serious issues that are in front of us, we try to figure out what's going to poll well and what can we do to get through the next election.

There is no practical way that George Bush, who is already threatening to Veto the Webb G.I. Bill if it's attached to the latest war supplemental, is going to RAISE TAXES ON THE OIL COMPANIES.

Not. Gonna. HAPPEN.

The result will blow a $6 Billion hole in our infrastructure budget that simply won't be replaced. This kind of cynical irresponsibility is not what we need in a President.

We don't need Clinton. We really don't need McSame.

We need Barack Obama.

Let me just close by saying this proposal will only save people 30 cents a day, 30 Pieces of Silver (well ok, "copper" whatever) - if it even worked, and it's not going to work. Comedian Lewis Black of Root of All Evil said it best when he describes his reaction to a previous tax scheme from Congress.

It would be better if my Congressman simply came to on my door and just pissed on my foot!

Are your socks all wet and squishy? That's not rain.

Vyan

Sunday, May 4

Someone Tell Hillary...It's the Math, Stupid.

Despite all the huffing and puffing over just when and how Hillary Clinton will finally pull a heroic Rocky-II-like comeback knock this black teenager out of the race - all the real numbers say she's already lost.

Barack Obama will be the Democratic Nominee, all he has to do is sit back and wait for it.

And you can prove it for yourself and all your friends with CNN's handy-dandy popiel-o-matic Delegate Calculator.

With this pocket-size tool, You Too, can be a Pundicator.

(Isn't it odd that no-one who actually appears on CNN knows how to use their own website?)

As of today, May 4th - my wife's birthday - the Delegate Calculator indicates that Obama has a lead of 1736 total delegates (with 289 needed to win) and Clinton has a total of 1,599 total delegates (with 426 needed to win).

The only numbers that really matter are the number of delegates needed to win - which again are 289 and 426 respectively. That's how close the nose each of our candidates has come to crossing the finish line.

What we have to remember is that either candidate must reach the magic number of 2025 only using the pledge and Superdelegates that remain, of which - according to the calculator - there only 695.

Simple, very simple, basic math says that in order to win Clinton has to gain 61% of all the remaining delegates. Each time she falls short of that number, it gets larger for the next contest. Obama on the other hand only needs 41%, as long as he stays above that number - HE WINS.

He could lose Indiana, lose North Carolina, lose Kentucky - but as long as he doesn't collapse below 41% - he will be the Nominee. Period.

And if he does better than that, things continually get worse for Clinton.

As of today the results in Guam and some of the recent Superdelegate shifts have not been counted on the calculator but that is of little matter, you and I can put them in ourselves.

Grab the Guam slider and set it 50% Obama/50% Clinton, it automatically allocates 2 delegates to each. That puts Obama at 287 and Clinton at 428 with 691 available. Their percentage requirements to win remain at 41% and 61% respectively.

The latest Zogby Poll for the Indiana Primary gives Obama a one point lead (43/42%) over Clinton. Adding this to the Calculator as best you can (52/48 Obama) gives Obama an additional 37 delegates, bringing him to 1,775 and another 35 for Clinton bringing her to 1,636.

Are you following along at home kiddies? I knew that you were, because this is where it gets fun.

With a small victory in Indiana Obama's Magic Number drops to 250 - and his percentage required for final victory also drops a bit from 41% to 40.3%. Clinton's does the opposite, with still 389 needed to win her required percentage for the remaining delegates shifts upward slightly to 62.8%.

This means simply put, that as time goes one things get worse for her - not better.

Let me just say this again, after this point Clinton has to beat Obama by an average of 22 points on all remaining contests and on all remaining Superdelegates to win the nomination.

Who in their right minds thinks that's gonna happen? (Oh, yeah, most of punditocracy on on CNN, MSNBC, FOX, ABC, NBC, and CBS - except for Chuck Todd who seems to have actually passed 5th Grade math - continues to maintain the ridiculous delusion that Hillary still has a chance to win, silly of me not to notice....)

Ok, let look at North Carolina - where the latest polls places Obama with a nine point lead (46 to 37%) over Clinton. Let's be generous and say that Obama only wins by 8 points (because the slider won't go to nine - damn you CNN!) Obama would receive 62 delegates and Clinton 53. After this contest there are only 504 available delegates, and in order to win Obama would only need to 37.3% of the remaining delegates and Clinton needs a whopping 67% to win.

Anytime she doesn't beat him by greater than that number she falls further behind and can't catch up.

If Clinton doesn't win both West Virginia (where she leads 55/27) and Kentucky (where she has a massive lead) by a pair of double digit 20 point blowouts it's still all over but the whining because those states - with only 28 and 51 delegates at stake respectively - are both too small to make up the difference.

That's right Hillary, "Small States really don't count that much" do they?

Just one week from now - there will only be 425 delegates left (which in reality is an over-estimate since many more Supers will probably be committed by this point next week) and Clinton will need to get 298 or at least 68% of them all (which is assuming that she does blow Barack out by 22 point in Kentucky and again in West Virginia as predicted)

A 22 point landslide is what she needs just to stay even at this point, she has to do much better than that to win.

Once you plug in all the remaining poll estimates, which really only includes Oregon which has Obama up by 6 points, and assume he basically loses every other state by at least 8 points except Puerto Rico where Clinton is strongly supported and there he gets again blown out again by at least 22 points...

You get this:

Even with all that, with every break she could possibly get, Clinton still needs 212 delegates to win, while Obama only needs 95. All of the 287 Superdelegates would have to break for Clinton by 73%. She needs to get almost 3 to 1 of the Supers over Obama to Win. But if Obama just barely manages to squeek by with just 33% of the Supers - it's over, it's done, finito.

He wins.

See?

Your mileage may vary depending on your assumptions generally speaking, and the Calculator isn't perfect, but even if you give her every benefit of the doubt and 2/3 of the Supers - whom she happens to have been leaking lately like water from an old radiator - she still can't win.

By all reasonable measures, she already lost, her campaign is dead - a load of sound and fury signifying nothing - she just hasn't realized or admitted it yet.

Go ahead, try it. see for yourself.

Vyan