Friday, June 13

Obama Surges Ahead

You're not likely to hear this in the corporate media, but as of yesterday Obama has taken a massive lead on McCain in the one area that truly matters.

The Electoral College (via Electoral-Vote.com)

After finally moving ahead in Michigan, and following some corrections on Indiana, Barack Obama is turning five former Red States Blue (Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Missouri & Ohio) and now has a 304 to 221 Electoral Vote Lead over John McCain.

The media would have you believe this is still a fairly close race. If you were to look at the various Gallup Polls between Obama and McCain.

Gallup says that Obama's General Election Numbers are only ahead of McCain by 6 points.

Gallup says that Obama's favorability is only 2 points ahead of McCain's.

Gallup says that Obama is also only leading with independents by 2 points.

But things get a little interesting when Gallup also says that there are clearly more Democrats than either Republicans or Independents

And that a higher percentage Independents apparently plan to Vote for Obama, than for McCain.

If you looked purely at these numbers you wouldn't really see anything all that impressive, but going back through the compilation of state-by-state electoral data that's been made available on Electoral-Vote.com and you get a very different picture.

When McCain secured the Republican nomination he held a significant lead over candidate Obama peaking at 324 to 205, but as Obama moved closer to nomination things became more competitive. Rev. Wrong, Bitter-gate and the Working Class White Voters of Kentucky clearly did some damage in early May, but on May 24th just two days after his win in the Oregon Primary, Obama took a 266 to 248 lead over McCain. This lead was extended on June 3rd after the final Democratic Primaries in Puerto Rico 287 to 227 and has held steady until now where he's moved ahead to 304 to 221.

Technically Electoral-Vote.com (whose main page has been down while I've been composing this post - possibly due to an overload after my last diary on them) is still behind on data for Virginia and has it listed as a tie. however, the underlying poll data shows that Survey USA puts Obama ahead in Virginia by 7 points as of May 18th (The data also shows that New Mexico is a tie!) If you then grant Obama those additional 13 Electoral Votes (and subtract 5 for New Mexico) his actual lead grows even further to 312 to 221 - 90 votes ahead of McCain and 40 Votes ahead of what he needs to become President.

Of course there are no guarantees that the map will continue to look this good for Obama - things could certainly change as they already have several times - but right now, I like the way the trend is looking.

Vyan

Update:Let me just point out that this is not a call to Get Cocky about our chances in November. John Kerry held an even greater lead than this on EVote.com and still managed to lose both Ohio and Florida. In Obama's case what the map shows is that he is barely ahead in five states, Ohio, Wisconsin, Missouri, Michigan and New Mexico (although more recent data shows he is tied in New Mexico and barely ahead in Virginia) the point remains that he will also LOSE if he doesn't solidify his current position in those states. He needs at least 3 out of 5 to win, but 5 out of 5 is better. These are the places he's winning and are putting him over the top, but it's also where he's vulnerable.

Vyan

Tuesday, June 10

This is where the Real Presidential Race Begins.

With the final concession and endorsement of Hillary Clinton, the Nomination process has ended and the General Election has finally begun.

So, as we start the last leg in the fight for the White House just where do we stand with Obama v McCain?

Although they been battling it out in the polls for months, the latest indications from Gallup are that as of this week Barack Obama has pulled into the lead ahead of John McCain 48% to 42%.

The problem of course with this poll and much of the talk in the corporate media pitting one demographic group against another (young voters vs old voters, educated vs uneducated, black vs women, men vs women) is the fact the we don't elect our President based on national or demographic polls - in the long run none of that data really matters.

What matters is the Electoral college, and it's when we look at that map that things get a tad more interesting.

As of today Electoral-Vote.com shows the national map as follows, with Barack Obama leading in enough states to give him a 287 to 227 Electoral Vote Victory over John McCain.

Click to View Fullsize

(Looking closely I have found some errors on the main map. According to the completely list of source polls - McCain and Obama are not tied in Indiana and Virginia as the map indicates.

An April 24th Poll from Research 2000 indicates that McCain leads Obama in Indiana by 51% to 43%, a May 18th poll from Survey USA shows that Obama leads McCain in Virginia by 49% to 42% and that New Mexico is a tie at 44% each - therefore the correct Electoral Math should be Obama 295, McCain 238.)

Even with corrections the Map shows Obama winning five states that John Kerry failed to carry in 2004, and only losing in one - Michigan.

These are the Battleground States for 2008

Colorado - Obama by 6%

Iowa - Obama by 9%

Virginia - Obama by 7%

Ohio - Obama by 9%

Missouri - Obama by 1%

New Mexico - Tied

Michigan - McCain by 4%

South Carolina - McCain by 3%

As you can see by the graphs, the fight has already been fairly volatile in these states and that the 48/42 split indicated by Gallup on the national level is hardly reflected at all on local state-by-state polls. With his current electoral lead, Obama could afford to fall behind and lose his lead in one or two three of these contests (in addition to Michigan and South Carolina where he trails slightly) by November and still reach the 270 votes needed to become the next President of the United States - but if he should fall behind in three or four of these states McCain could win. The question of course is just how likely is that to happen, particularly with the continued rebellion of the Hillacrats such as those who frequent Hillaryis44.com such as Taylor Marsh?

I will not fall in line for the sake of unity for someone who puts Ronald Reagan above Bill Clinton, and uses his campaign to attack, malign and misrepresent a president that with all his faults, gave his very best for his country, left it in thriving economic health, with our reputation around the world at its highest, with middle class people everywhere in better shape than when he arrived. I also will not support anyone who casts aspersions on a woman running for president by implying she cannot win his supporters, or that she can’t be trusted with secret intelligence, a right-wing talking point about Democrats that goes back to my Reagan Democrat days when the GOP let loose with the line that Democrats were "soft on national security," something they’ve been selling ever since.

I’m a proud Democrat, but I’m an American first. If you want unity you’ve come to the wrong place.

People like this are not who Barack can depend on to maintain his lead, and to pick up votes in states where he currently trails. However the question remains, if Barack losses these people - does it hurt him where it matters?

If you look at the Map of Primary wins for Barack Obama below - (taken from CNN's Delegate Calculator) it really doesn't appear to be a problem.

Of the eight key battleground states - Barack prevailed in the primary in all but Ohio, Michigan and New Mexico. He won a huge swatch of southern states including both North and South Carolina, and he won nearly all of the pacific northwest softening some of McCain's support in North Dakota. The truth is that if Obama loses support in New York and California due to disgruntled Hillary supporters - it's not going turn those states over to McCain. It might hurt him in Ohio - he could lose there - but then if he continues to hold what he already has he still has 275 Electoral Votes (270 needed to win), which means that he doesn't absolutely need Ohio, or Florida for that matter. It would be good to win both Ohio and Michigan, but he doesn't have to.

As it stands right now, I like our chances. All we have to do is bring it home.

Vyan

Sunday, June 8

Obama Pep Talk with Staffers