Wednesday, May 14

The Primary Endgame: A Shotgun Wedding?

There's only one way this ends, and it's not going to be pretty. Hillary Clinton has deliberately driven a stake through the heart of the Democratic Party, and not because she's a sportman's and refuses to leave the field of play until the last whistle, it's because she want to position herself as completely indespesible to Barack Obama in the all.

She's been more than willing to pander and try and bribe the electorate with her gas tax holiday scheme. She's been willing to bait and pander to poor, ignorant West Virginian's like these...



Listen to this Hillacrat dreck, "Obama's a Muslim - he's doesn't know the Pledge of Allegiance or the Star Spangled Banner - he doesn't believe in America the way Hillary or McCain do..."

Why is Hillary willing to win on the back of this swill?

It can all only be for one reason.

I haven't yet found any video of this, but yesterday during the Primary Coverage on CNN, former NY Governor Mario Cuomo came on-air to talk about the likelyhood of a "Dreamticket" of Obama/Clinton.

He claimed... (not an exact transcription)

Cuomo: None of the reasons against it make sense.

Host: But what the idea that Barack Obama represents a change from the politics of the past, while Clinton represents the past?

Cuomo: Ok, that almost makes sense, but do you mean the past like the (Bill) Clinton Presidency? Where we had a $1.4 Trillion budget surplus, the best economy we've had in generations, people moving out of poverty...


Let's just get one thing straight, Hillary Clinton is not BILL Clinton. Simply because they happen to be married does not mean she will be implementing the same type of policies that he did. Such an assumption would be like thinking that George W Bush, would simply be a echo of his father - George H.W. Bush's - presidency.

We've all seen how that turned out haven't we.

The problem isn't that Hillary Clinton represents the return of Bill Clinton's past - she has clearly shown through this campaign that she truly represents the return and continuation of No-Holds Barred Karl Rove Politics.

She's willing to use anything, to scratch, claw and bite her way into the White House even though for several weeks she's had no mathematical pathway to get there. In fact, she shown more than a touch of the delusional - "I can make my own reality" politics that we've seen far too much of over the last 8 years.

Yes, she won West Virginia.

But there is no good reason to hyperventilate over the delegates that Hillary picked up yesterday. In the past week Barack Obama has gained more Superdelegats (37) than are even available from that entire state (28), meaning that since the previous primaries in North Carolina and Indiana she's actually lost ground to Obama even with winning in WV.

But that doesn't matter, what matters isn't the delegate count, it's the electoral map. As of today, the current state-by-state polls indicate the Clinton would defeat McCain by 280 to 241 Electoral Votes. That is based on these numbers.



Florida: Clinton 49% McCain 41%
Ohio: Clinton 48% McCain 38%
West Virginia : Clinton 47% McCain 42%

By contrast Obama is current in losing to McCain 237 to 290, whereas just a week ago they were in a virtual tie.



Obama was already losing in Florida, Ohio and West Virginia, but now he's also losing in Wisconsin and Michigan. That's not good.

I understand that Poblana numbers show Obama potentially winning by a landslide based on high turnout from youth and minority voters. But it's also true that the youth vote also tends to be unreliable, so betting the farm on the youth is a high-risk gamble for Barack.

Yes, there are many other reasons why this November could still be Tidal Wave for Obama, but they are all theoretical - and not yet concrete or proven.

The problem is that the Electoral Map does not LIE.

As it stand right now, Barack Obama is probably going to lose in November.

In order to prevent a McCain victory in November, Hillary Clinton has forced Obama into a position where he has to somehow reach the apparently unreachable between now and then. Those poor, uninformed, uneducated, blue-collar Democratic Voters in shown in the clip above have to be persuaded to Stay with the Democrats instead of bolting for McCain.

Hillary has remained in this race, not because she has any reasonable expectation that she's going to grab some landslide of Superdelegates willing to snatch the nomination away from Obama, but simply because she - and only she - may be able to bring Florida, Michigan, Ohio and yes, even Redneck infested West Virginia into the Democratic column and guarantee victory.

She's hoping for a Shotgun Wedding in Denver, and she'll get it if...

If..

And this is a BIG if... Barack Obama is willing to toss his own ideals and the core elements of his candidacy - Hope and Change - completely under the bus. Is he willing to take on a second-in-command who would play had hard, fast and loose as Clinton has played with "He's not a Muslim, as far as I know" and "He can't get the working-class White voters", and "He's an elitist who drinks orange juice" tactics. Is this how he answers the toughness question? Does he think he can use Clinton to kill the "experience" issue the way that Cheney did for Bush? Can he keep a snake on the leash in the West Wing, only to be released when and where he feels the need to twist and arm, or Pop a Cap in somebodies ass up Capitol Hill?

Is that a Role Hillary willing to play for the next 4-8 years? White House Pitt Bull?

I'm seriously beginning to think that it is, that she isn't playing to the Supers anymore - she's trying to make this case to Barack.

The question is: Does he have the stones to resist the temptation, put his faith in the youth, strap his own campaign to his shoulders without pandering to the Hillacrats and carry it across the finish line despite the mindfield that Clinton has put in his path?

I think he might, and if he does, it will be a glorious sight to behold.

Update Ok, I've heard a lot of arguments against this idea, some have said the polls don't mean anything even though there is a Rec'd Diary right now claiming Barack has a 7 point lead nationally on McCain, except that we don't elect the president nationally we use the electoral college, and it's from the same sources that electoral-vote.com uses, Quinnipiac - but the best one I think is the following.

Something else Cuomo said was that Obama can't get Hillary's voters and Hillary can't get his - so it makes sense for them to combine forces in his mind.

What he failed to realize is that if she's on the ticket there are people who won't vote for Barack anymore - and that many of her voters who vote for her even as Veep if Barack is at the top so it's not "Win/Win" it's "Lose/Lose"!!


The point being that if Obama falls for the trick, and I don't think he will, it'll massively hurt him in the fall, not help him. We're going to have to win this without the Hillacrats.

Vyan

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