Anyone who thinks they have all the Answers before they've even heard the Question - is Dangerously Deluded! Real Truth Requires Vigilance, Perseverance and Courage, regardless of Party and who wields Power. Left, Right, Center, Corporations, Government, Unions, Criminals or the Indifferent.
“I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on,” she said in the interview, citing an article by The Associated Press.
It “found how Senator Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me.”
“There’s a pattern emerging here,” she said.
Oh, No she D'int!
Oh yeah. She did, but the funny part is that all she did her was repeat what the Press has been doing for months. Just do a search on Yahoo News for "Obama, White Voters, Polls" and this is what you get.
1. >Obama Faces White Resistance In South, Polls Show - Politics on The ... Obama Faces White Resistance In South, Polls Show - The Huffington Post ... Obama did less well among white voters nationally in a CBS poll released January ... huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/19/obama-faces-white-resista_n_82300.html - 87k - Cached
2. Voters question Clinton's trustworthiness. - By Chadwick Matlin - Slate ... ... Times/CBS News poll says the country prefers Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton by 12 ... Six percent of Democratic primary voters think Obama is a Muslim. ... www.slate.com/id/2175496 - Cached
3. Obama Support Among "Bitter" Voters Unchanged ... poll can help address the issue directly because it asks voters if ... to live in small towns, Obama probably had white voters in mind when he made his ... gallup.com/poll/.../Obama-Support-Among-Bitter-Voters-Unchanged.aspx
4. Election Center 2008: Primary Exit Polls - Elections & Politics news ... ... .com delivers the latest exit polls for the Democratic and Republican ... The Political Ticker • Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • John McCain • more topics " ... www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls - Cached
5. ABC News: White Working-Class vs. Change in Indiana EXIT POLL: White Working-Class vs. Change in Indiana; Blacks Lift Obama to N.C. Victory ... 51 percent of voters picked it, and they went to Obama by about his ... abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=4798314&page=1 - 94k
6. ABC News: PA exit polls: Whites, blue-collar voters stick with Clinton Working-class white voters rallied around Hillary Rodham Clinton on Tuesday as ... Survivor: Clinton Closes In on Obama. WATCH: Rocky Road to the White House ... abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=4706022 - 93k
7. Obama struggle to attract white voters continues ... in Denver is whether Obama's weakness with white voters could endure and spell ... The poll found that white voters who say equal rights for minorities have been ... www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/18095979.html - 56k - Cached
8. Clinton Hangs On, Obama Drops in Polls, With Negative Media Attention ... ... well Clinton and Obama do relative to each other among White voters when each is ... percentage of White voters who will not vote for Obama based solely on ... www.talkleft.com/story/2008/4/28/204817/799 - Cached
9. Voters agree Wright furor hurt Obama : Politics : Commercial Appeal Black and white voters in next week's primary states agreed on one thing on Wednesday: Barack Obama's preacher had hurt the Democratic presidential candidate at a ... commercialappeal.com/news/2008/may/01/road-to-the-white-house-voters... - Cached
10. Polls: Obama falters with working-class whites - Barack Obama News ... ... Barack Obama discusses his connection with working-class white voters with NBC's ... In exit polls, one in five of the state's white voters who haven't completed ... www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24447399 - Cached
Far from being a taboo subject, this issue has been constantly debated since both Rev. Wright and Bitter-gate.
How does Obama win back the Springer Vote? How is he going to appeal to the Double-Wide Demographic?
Don't look so shocked, we all know what we're talking about here. White, Working-class, un and under-educated. C'mon. Where do you really think these people can afford to live? A condo? Who do you think Rush Limbaugh is talking to day in and day out?
Some of my best friends used to enjoy semi-mobile living conditions. Really.
Anywho...
The sad part about this discussion isn't the fact that it's being discussed, it's that it's being portrayed as some kind of failure on Barack's part! instead of the very obvious implication that we still, even in the 21st Century, have some dumb-ass reactionary redneck's left in this country.
Again, don't get all offended - isn't that the core idea behind Jeff Foxworthy's entire career?
You might be a Redneck if...?
You won't vote for the Black man for President, even when he's the best candidate, he's won the popular vote, he's (practically) won the delegate vote and he's won the most states.
I thought that was the entire point behind CMT. and "Blue-Collar TV"?
Instead of asking, gee - what the hell is wrong with these people? - the press has been putting all the blame in Barack's lap?
And now that Hillary is echoing them, people are up in arms?
Oh my God, the Sherrif Nominee is a Nig...!
Just figuring that out now are ya? Very astute. But Guess what...
Oh my God, the Country's Full of Ignorant Red-Necks too...!
Which of course, according to the Press, would be Clinton's base.
But here's the really interesting thing that the Press and Hillary haven't said, something that our own DemfromCT pointed out last week.
Since July 2006, long before both Bitter-Gate and Rev. Wrong, Barack Obama's favorability has actually maintained a net 5 points gain in support from White Voters, Hillary has lost 36 points from the Black Vote.
I wonder why the Press doesn't ask "What in the world is Hillary going to do about her Black Voter problem?"
Instead we get all this blather about how we're supposed to expect Black people to vote not based on issues, or facts, but skin color.
Y'know - cause they're just naturally racist. They see everything through the prism of color. It's in their blood, don't cha know?
Never mind the fact that both Bill and Hillary used to have massive support Black Voters. Why doesn't the Press ask - What went wrong sour between Hill and Black people?
Oh wait, they did ask that and the answer was - Bill.
But White people, when they reject a perfectly good Black candidate it's got nothing to do with race - except for everything! You see, he's too leftist and radical (A hidden Black Panther), he's too elitist (Uppity!), Educated (Effete!), and he' too damn Muslim (Barack Hussein Obama - Farrakhan and Hamas' new Puppet President!) and we shouldn't bother to call them out on it. No, don't even think about it. Don't get them all riled up by saying they're "bitter" or anything...
That's like tossing raw meat at a starving dog.
For those who can't take a hint:/Snark Off!
It's about time we started realizing that we have some big big problems in this country and it's not all the black peoples fault, nor is it all the white peoples fault. It's our fault if we let ourselves be manipulated in this way. If we fail to see the obvious. If we let injustice happen in our laps and just brush it away.
We need to admit that Racism for a minority of say 17% of Democratic Voters in the South has become acceptable. It's expected now.
We have to do better than this. This isn't just Barack's problem, it's a problem for all of us.
We need to get enraged and fight back not just because Hillary repeats this nonsense, we need to fight back All the Time when the media repeatedly attempts to pit us all against each other.
We need to fight fear with truth.
Black people are not slaves to their skin-tone, and White people - even the "uneducated" ones - are a lot smarter and a lot less racist and reactionary than everyone from ABC to FOX seems to think.
Barack can get the White Vote back, in fact he's already started to - and if Hillary keeps insulting her own "base", she's going to lose all of it.
The Judiciary Committee has voted this morning to subpoena Dick Cheney's Chief of Staff David Addington to testify and explain the development of the administrations interrogation program.
Listening to the Vice-President's Chief of staff explain how Pouring water down someone throat isn't as bad as Forcing it down their throat - never mind the ensuing suffocation either way - should be a real popcorn moment.
More from Thinkprogress which discusses ongoing efforts to bring Doug Feith, George Tenet and John Ashcroft before the committee as well.
If this had happened last year before Stonewall-Gate basically stole every once of energy from the DOJ-purge investigation, I'd be a lot more optimistic.
The best we can hope for - assuming that Fred Fielding doesn't kneecap the process with executive priveledge claims - is that these hearing may force the congress to seriously reconsider the Military Commissions Act, restore Habeaus Corpus, dismantle Gitmo, end the Kangaroo Combatant Courts and remove the immunity for torturers who acted between 2001 and 2005.
The eyes of the world are watching, particularly when we held an al Jazeera journalist for 6 years without charges or trial...
Hajj is the only major mainstream news journalist ever to be held at [Guantanemo] prison. His supporters claimed that he was being held in retaliation for US anger over the Arabic television network.
The cameraman was never prosecuted. The US never published its allegations, but said in a hearing that Hajj was classified as an enemy combatant because he worked as executive secretary for a beverage company whose director allegedly aided Muslim forces in Bosnia and Chechnya. He was also suspected of transfering money to a charity the US labeled as terrorist, and had interviewed Bin Laden.
The man worked at the company where the director was suspected of helping Muslim forces in Bosnia? In Chechnya? Talk about Guilt by Association. He gave money to a charity? He interviewed Bin Laden? So did Peter Arnett of CNN.
But Hajj isn't the worst case, the truth needs to be told. Here's what Human Rights First said about Torture two years ago in it's report on Gitmo: Command Responsibility
Since August 2002, nearly 100 detainees have died while in the hands of U.S. officials in the global "war on terror." According to the U.S. military’s own classifications, 34 of these cases are suspected or confirmed homicides; Human Rights First has identified another 11 in which the facts suggest death as a result of physical abuse or harsh conditions of detention. In close to half the deaths Human Rights First surveyed, the cause of death remains officially undetermined or unannounced. Overall, eight people in U.S. custody were tortured to death.
Despite these numbers, four years since the first known death in U.S. custody, only 12 detainee deaths have resulted in punishment of any kind for any U.S. official. Of the 34 homicide cases so far identified by the military, investigators recommended criminal charges in fewer than two thirds, and charges were actually brought (based on decisions made by command) in less than half. While the CIA has been implicated in several deaths, not one CIA agent has faced a criminal charge. Crucially, among the worst cases in this list – those of detainees tortured to death – only half have resulted in punishment; the steepest sentence for anyone involved in a torture-related death: five months in jail.
The War Crimes Act, even after it received it's Bybee inspired downgrade, still considers torturing someone to death to be a Capital Offense. High level government officials who sanction U.S. policies which led to these deaths could be charged with Conspiracy and as accesseries to Murder.
That's a conspiracy that includes Yoo, Bybee, Gonzales, Addington, Cheney - and Bush.
In a way I almost wish they would wait until the next administration, because the more that Congress shows that these people are at criminal risk, the more likely they are to get pardoned as they sneak out the back door - and we really don't need that.
MR. RUSSERT: One issue that has really defined the two campaigns here in Indiana is this debate over gasoline...
SEN. OBAMA: Right.
MR. RUSSERT: ...the price of it and whether there should be a tax holiday...
SEN. OBAMA: Right.
MR. RUSSERT: ...from the federal taxes. This is Hillary Clinton's ad talking about you. Let's watch.
(Videotape of political ad)
Narrator: Now gas prices are skyrocketing, and she's ready to act again. Hillary's plan, use the windfall profits of the oil companies to pay to suspend the gas tax this summer. Barack Obama says no, again.
People are hurting, it's time for a president who's ready to take action now.
(End videotape)
MR. RUSSERT: Why are you against giving taxpayers in Indiana, North Carolina, a relief from federal gasoline tax this summer?
SEN. OBAMA: You're right, Tim, this defines, I think, the difference between myself and Senator Clinton. This gas tax, which was first proposed by John McCain and then quickly adopted by Senator Clinton, is a classic Washington gimmick. It, it is a political response to a serious problem that we have neglected for decades. Now, here's, here's the upshot. You're looking at suspending a gas tax for three months. The average driver would save 30 cents per day for a grand total of $28. That's assuming that the oil companies don't step in and raise prices by the same amount that the tax has been reduced. And, by the way, I have some experience on this because in Illinois we tried this when I was in the state legislature, and that's exactly what happened. The oil companies, the retailers were the ones who ended up benefiting.
MR. RUSSERT: You voted for it, too.
SEN. OBAMA: I did. Exactly. And that...
MR. RUSSERT: When gas was only $2 a gallon.
SEN. OBAMA: And, and that's my point. I voted for it, and then six months later we took a look, and consumers had not benefited at all, but we had lost revenue.
MR. RUSSERT: So you learned from a wrong vote.
SEN. OBAMA: Yeah, I learned from a mistake.
Barack Obama made a mistake and learned from it. He gained the benefit of Experience (Ding Ding Ding!) on this issue, and instead of continuing to give the people empty meaningless Happy Talk about it, he's telling the truth.
The Gas Tax Holiday is not going to work.
What's worse, it won't be paid for...
Obama: And, in addition, what happens is, is that this would come out of the Federal Highway Fund that we use to rebuild our roads and our bridges. And if we don't have that fund, then we're looking at thousands of jobs being lost in Indiana and in North Carolina.
Now, Senator Clinton says that she's going to use the windfall profits tax to fill it. First of all, she's already said that she's going to use the windfall profits tax for something else, as I have, and, and that is to invest in clean energy and, and other important measures. So that money, she's already spending twice. More importantly, nobody thinks that George Bush is actually going to spend--or is actually going to sign a law for windfall profits taxes, so that's not going to happen this summer.
So what this is, is a strategy to get through the next election. And Senator Clinton's own staff told The Washington Post, "We don't think this is really going to go anywhere. We don't think it's going to work, but we think it's a good issue to use in a campaign." And that's what Washington does. We, we, we don't deal with the serious issues that are in front of us, we try to figure out what's going to poll well and what can we do to get through the next election.
There is no practical way that George Bush, who is already threatening to Veto the Webb G.I. Bill if it's attached to the latest war supplemental, is going to RAISE TAXES ON THE OIL COMPANIES.
Not. Gonna. HAPPEN.
The result will blow a $6 Billion hole in our infrastructure budget that simply won't be replaced. This kind of cynical irresponsibility is not what we need in a President.
We don't need Clinton. We really don't need McSame.
We need Barack Obama.
Let me just close by saying this proposal will only save people 30 cents a day, 30 Pieces of Silver (well ok, "copper" whatever) - if it even worked, and it's not going to work. Comedian Lewis Black of Root of All Evil said it best when he describes his reaction to a previous tax scheme from Congress.
It would be better if my Congressman simply came to on my door and just pissed on my foot!
Are your socks all wet and squishy? That's not rain.
Despite all the huffing and puffing over just when and how Hillary Clinton will finally pull a heroic Rocky-II-like comeback knock this black teenager out of the race - all the real numbers say she's already lost.
Barack Obama will be the Democratic Nominee, all he has to do is sit back and wait for it.
And you can prove it for yourself and all your friends with CNN's handy-dandy popiel-o-matic Delegate Calculator.
With this pocket-size tool, You Too, can be a Pundicator.
(Isn't it odd that no-one who actually appears on CNN knows how to use their own website?)
As of today, May 4th - my wife's birthday - the Delegate Calculator indicates that Obama has a lead of 1736 total delegates (with 289 needed to win) and Clinton has a total of 1,599 total delegates (with 426 needed to win).
The only numbers that really matter are the number of delegates needed to win - which again are 289 and 426 respectively. That's how close the nose each of our candidates has come to crossing the finish line.
What we have to remember is that either candidate must reach the magic number of 2025 only using the pledge and Superdelegates that remain, of which - according to the calculator - there only 695.
Simple, very simple, basic math says that in order to win Clinton has to gain 61% of all the remaining delegates. Each time she falls short of that number, it gets larger for the next contest. Obama on the other hand only needs 41%, as long as he stays above that number - HE WINS.
He could lose Indiana, lose North Carolina, lose Kentucky - but as long as he doesn't collapse below 41% - he will be the Nominee. Period.
And if he does better than that, things continually get worse for Clinton.
As of today the results in Guam and some of the recent Superdelegate shifts have not been counted on the calculator but that is of little matter, you and I can put them in ourselves.
Grab the Guam slider and set it 50% Obama/50% Clinton, it automatically allocates 2 delegates to each. That puts Obama at 287 and Clinton at 428 with 691 available. Their percentage requirements to win remain at 41% and 61% respectively.
The latest Zogby Poll for the Indiana Primary gives Obama a one point lead (43/42%) over Clinton. Adding this to the Calculator as best you can (52/48 Obama) gives Obama an additional 37 delegates, bringing him to 1,775 and another 35 for Clinton bringing her to 1,636.
Are you following along at home kiddies? I knew that you were, because this is where it gets fun.
With a small victory in Indiana Obama's Magic Number drops to 250 - and his percentage required for final victory also drops a bit from 41% to 40.3%. Clinton's does the opposite, with still 389 needed to win her required percentage for the remaining delegates shifts upward slightly to 62.8%.
This means simply put, that as time goes one things get worse for her - not better.
Let me just say this again, after this point Clinton has to beat Obama by an average of 22 points on all remaining contests and on all remaining Superdelegates to win the nomination.
Who in their right minds thinks that's gonna happen? (Oh, yeah, most of punditocracy on on CNN, MSNBC, FOX, ABC, NBC, and CBS - except for Chuck Todd who seems to have actually passed 5th Grade math - continues to maintain the ridiculous delusion that Hillary still has a chance to win, silly of me not to notice....)
Ok, let look at North Carolina - where the latest polls places Obama with a nine point lead (46 to 37%) over Clinton. Let's be generous and say that Obama only wins by 8 points (because the slider won't go to nine - damn you CNN!) Obama would receive 62 delegates and Clinton 53. After this contest there are only 504 available delegates, and in order to win Obama would only need to 37.3% of the remaining delegates and Clinton needs a whopping 67% to win.
Anytime she doesn't beat him by greater than that number she falls further behind and can't catch up.
If Clinton doesn't win both West Virginia (where she leads 55/27) and Kentucky (where she has a massive lead) by a pair of double digit 20 point blowouts it's still all over but the whining because those states - with only 28 and 51 delegates at stake respectively - are both too small to make up the difference.
That's right Hillary, "Small States really don't count that much" do they?
Just one week from now - there will only be 425 delegates left (which in reality is an over-estimate since many more Supers will probably be committed by this point next week) and Clinton will need to get 298 or at least 68% of them all (which is assuming that she does blow Barack out by 22 point in Kentucky and again in West Virginia as predicted)
A 22 point landslide is what she needs just to stay even at this point, she has to do much better than that to win.
Once you plug in all the remaining poll estimates, which really only includes Oregon which has Obama up by 6 points, and assume he basically loses every other state by at least 8 points except Puerto Rico where Clinton is strongly supported and there he gets again blown out again by at least 22 points...
You get this:
Even with all that, with every break she could possibly get, Clinton still needs 212 delegates to win, while Obama only needs 95. All of the 287 Superdelegates would have to break for Clinton by 73%. She needs to get almost 3 to 1 of the Supers over Obama to Win. But if Obama just barely manages to squeek by with just 33% of the Supers - it's over, it's done, finito.
He wins.
See?
Your mileage may vary depending on your assumptions generally speaking, and the Calculator isn't perfect, but even if you give her every benefit of the doubt and 2/3 of the Supers - whom she happens to have been leaking lately like water from an old radiator - she still can't win.
By all reasonable measures, she already lost, her campaign is dead - a load of sound and fury signifying nothing - she just hasn't realized or admitted it yet.
