Vyan

Wednesday, June 25

Rove is Outraged that NYT Dared to Name a CIA Agent?!

Yes, it may be too ironic to believe - but here it is in black, white and Youtube.

Rove: [T]hey’ve got a very callous view about our nation’s security and interests.

...

Well, I read their explanation. And basically, it sounded to me like they were saying we put his name out there because we decided we could. And I mean, they didn’t have a good explanation for it.

Bad Grand Ole' Lady - Bad Bad!

So just who was this agent and why did they name him? Details over the flip.

In this article describing the interrogation methods used on Khallid Sheik Mohammad, the New York Times takes the extraordinary step of daring to name the interrogator - Deuce Martinez.

WASHINGTON — In a makeshift prison in the north of Poland, Al Qaeda’s engineer of mass murder faced off against his Central Intelligence Agency interrogator. It was 18 months after the 9/11 attacks, and the invasion of Iraq was giving Muslim extremists new motives for havoc. If anyone knew about the next plot, it was Khalid Shaikh Mohammed.

The interrogator, Deuce Martinez, a soft-spoken analyst who spoke no Arabic, had turned down a C.I.A. offer to be trained in waterboarding. He chose to leave the infliction of pain and panic to others, the gung-ho paramilitary types whom the more cerebral interrogators called "knuckledraggers."

Mr. Martinez came in after the rough stuff, the ultimate good cop with the classic skills: an unimposing presence, inexhaustible patience and a willingness to listen to the gripes and musings of a pitiless killer in rambling, imperfect English. He achieved a rapport with Mr. Mohammed that astonished his fellow C.I.A. officers.

So here we have an agent, who didn't use "extreme interrogation" methods who low and behold - actualy produced results, contrary to everything the Bush Administation has been claiming is possible.

No wonder Rove is PO'd, people like Mr. Martinez - who are capable of building a rapport with a vicious killer and convincing him to provide information willingly - aren't supposed to exist.

But they do.

Now why exactly did the New York Times give this man's name? This is their explanation.

The Central Intelligence Agency asked The New York Times not to publish the name of Deuce Martinez, an interrogator who questioned Khalid Shaikh Mohammed and other high-level Al Qaeda prisoners, saying that to identify Mr. Martinez would invade his privacy and put him at risk of retaliation from terrorists or harassment from critics of the agency.

After discussion with agency officials and a lawyer for Mr. Martinez, the newspaper declined the request, noting that Mr. Martinez had never worked under cover and that others involved in the campaign against Al Qaeda have been named in news stories and books. The editors judged that the name was necessary for the credibility and completeness of the article.

Let me re-emphasize that Mr. Martinez never worked undercover and hence was not covered by the IIPA, unlike Valerie Plame Wilson who was covered by the Act.

It is fair to argue that publishing his name might put Mr. Martinez under negative scrutiny, and to emphasize this I will point out that when his name was published in 1998, Richard Clarke became a named target of Al Qeada and subsequently received Secret Service Training and was issued a personal firearm for protection.

To this date, Valerie Plame Wilson has received no such training and has not been issued her own fiream.

Since all three of these people, and their families might be in danger, it isn't unreasonable to ask that all three of them be afforded some level of protection - even if they have to implement that protection on their own.

But then again, to quote a rather fantastical fowl, "they knew the job was dangerous when they took it". No point in crying about it now.

Besides that, what Martinez has accomplished is frankly Heroic. He should be praised for what he's done, not hidden in the shadows where Rove and his Torture-Pornaseur Ilk would like to keep him. This guys deserves a medal. In fact, he deserves the medal that Bush gave to George Tenet.

No, not the same kind - THE SAME ONE! At least this guy earned it.

And just for those of us who are somewhat fact and history challenged, or have completely missed everything being currently said by Scott McClennan, the reason Rove's phony outrage over this is functionally ridiculous is the fact that Rove himself confirmed Plame's status as a CIA employee to two different reporters as noted by Thinkprogress

– Time magazine reporter Matt Cooper said, "Karl Rove told me about Valerie Plame’s identity on July 11, 2003. I called him because Ambassador Wilson [Plame’s husband] was in the news that week. I didn’t know Ambassador Wilson even had a wife until I talked to Karl Rove."

– A week prior to publishing his column which outed Plame, Robert Novak spoke with Rove. Novak brought up Plame’s role at the CIA, and Rove confirmed that Plame worked at the CIA: "I heard that too," said Rove.

Rove acted as Novak's confirmation source (on special double-secret background) after he had initially heard about Plame from Richard Armitage. (And Armitage wouldn't have known about her either if Scooter Libby hadn't been poking around asking his deputy questions about her which ultimately resulted in the INR report which - inaccurately - mentions her involvement in recruiting Joe Wilson for a trip to Niger)

It's frankly amazing to me that Rove can sit there on National TV and claim to be so annoyed with the New York Times because it was the New York Times that initially refused to publish Judith Miller's Story - as told to her by Libby - about Wilson and his Wife. Robert Novak published that story even though the CIA told him not to.

And he did it because of Karl Rove - Hypocrite Extraordinaire.

Vyan

Tuesday, June 24

McCain Thinks:"More Terrorism Is Good for Me!"

Following the reported comments by McCain Senior adviser Charlie Black to Fortune Magazine that another terrorist attack would be a "Big Advantage" for the McCain Campaign, Thinkprogress has uncovered that contrary to McCain recent denials of Black's statements...

McCain: If he said that, and I do not know the context, I strenuously disagree."

It appears that John McCain himself said the exact same thing about President Bush's 2004 campaign.

U.S. Sen. John McCain, campaigning in southwestern Connecticut on Saturday, said Osama bin Laden’s video message to Americans will likely energize President Bush’s re-election campaign.

"I think it’s very helpful to President Bush," said McCain, R-Ariz., while stumping in Stamford for U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays. "It focuses America’s attention on the war on terrorism. I’m not sure if it was intentional or not, but I think it does have an effect." [AP, 10/30/04]

Ruh roh!

But wait, it gets worse.

Much more recently McCain has also echoed Black (or was it the reverse) when he stated to CNN's Dana Bash that the terrorist assasination of Pakistani Politician Benazir Bhutto would help him
politically.

From CNN's Situation Room:

BASH: I was actually with Sen. McCain the very day that Benazir Bhutto was assassinated. ... He really did understand from that moment that this was something that he thought could help him in the race at that point to be the Republican nominee. In fact, at that event that very day I asked Sen. McCain if he thought it would help his political campaign and he said pretty much "Yes." ... So it’s not a secret that back then that Sen. McCain and his campaign thought it would help.

Again, contrary to McCain's claim that he "Couldn't imagine" why Black would say anything like this, it appears that Black was simply Repeating McCain's Thinking.

Now, it's not that McCain thought or said that a terrorism would be good for the country, obviously it wouldn't be - but it's also absolutely clear that the strategy of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) is at the heart of his campaign - not simply a random idea expressed by one staffer on an off night. They just don't know when to stop playing the Terror Card even when the deck is warn and faceless. This is not what his Pastor has said, this is not like Bitter-gate, this is the Real John McCain.

Maybe we should make sure most of the nation begins to understand the priorities of a man who would claim the highest office in the Western World?

Vyan

Monday, June 23

DC Court of Appeals to Bush: No More "Enemy Combatants"?

The DC Court of Appeals just handed Bush a major smackdown on his terrorism policy - they (may have laid the groundwork for) establishing that there's no such thing as an "Enemy Combatant"

WASHINGTON (AP) — A federal appeals court, in the first case it reviewed, has overturned the Pentagon's classification of a Guantanamo detainee as an enemy combatant.

...

The court rejected the Bush administration's argument that the president has the power to detain people who never took up arms against the U.S.

This decision probably won't affect insurgent fighters captured on the field of battle, but it could affect non-combatants those captured via informants or surveillance, and following the Supreme Court's recent restoration of Habaeus Corpus, it seems unlikely that they would overturn and reverse this decision - and if taken to it's ultimate conclusion, the implications to the Bush Administration could be devastating.

Ever since 2002 the Bush Administration has used the classification "Enemy Combatant" to deny Geneva Conventions to detainees captured in the War on Terror. They used it to justify "Extraordinary Rendition", secret "Black Site" prisons and to practice Torture in direct violation of War Crimes Provision of U.S. Law. Some of these detainees have been children, while others were literally sold to us by informants - like slaves bought on the auction block. More raw materials for CIA Contractors to "process".

A McClatchy investigation has revealed that an amazing number of these detainees - contrary to claims made by the President, and basically every other Republican including John McCain - are just plain innocent.

The McClatchy investigation found that top Bush administration officials knew within months of opening the Guantanamo detention center that many of the prisoners there weren't "the worst of the worst." From the moment that Guantanamo opened in early 2002, former Secretary of the Army Thomas White said, it was obvious that at least a third of the population didn't belong there.

Of the 66 detainees whom McClatchy interviewed, the evidence indicates that 34 of them, about 52 percent, had connections with militant groups or activities. At least 23 of those 34, however, were Taliban foot soldiers, conscripts, low-level volunteers or adventure-seekers who knew nothing about global terrorism.

Only seven of the 66 were in positions to have had any ties to al Qaida's leadership, and it isn't clear that any of them knew any terrorists of consequence.

When members of the FBI nearly arrested CIA Interrogators for their treatment of prisoners, the excuse used to keep the FBI at bay was - these are "Enemy Combatants", normal rules of justice and law need not apply.

If this decision is upheld, the Bush Administration will have essentially run out of wiggle room. The entire Military Commissions Process, which was established after the Supreme Court decided in Hamdan v Rumsfeld that the Geneva Conventions essentially apply to everyone involved in a war, will now be in shambles. The hundreds of detainees held at Gitmo and tens of thousands of others being held around the world at placed like Abu Ghraib and Bagram AFB will now either have to be declared Prisoners of War and tried via a Court Martial or charged in Criminal Cases and tried as Civilians.

It's either option A (Military), option B (Civilian) or option C - let those people go. There will soon be no more other options left.

The problem with this is naturally, that coerced confessions are not allowed in Criminal or Military Cases. Confessions obtained under duress are not admissable. The claims that former Gitmo prisoners have come back to fight us again the battle field, is Largely a Myth! In a real court - not this made-up Kangaroo Fiasco we currently have at Gitmo - defendants must be arraigned in a timely manner, you can not hold them indefinitely without charges, the innocent are proctected from the overreach of the state. Oh and Deliberate Abuse - as the President has admitted to authorizing under his "Enhanced Interrogation" Program - is Punishable as a War Crime, particularly when the subject doesn't just feel like their dying in a "simulated" way - at least two dozen of them have actually died (PDF) as a result of these horrifically flawed U.S. policies.

Someone tell McCain that this isn't about making money for Trial Lawyers, all the attorney's at Gitmo - like Former Lt. Cmd Swift who was Sacked for Winning in before the Supreme Court on Hamdan - are in the Military, and most Civilian Attorneys are willing to work on cases like these Pro Bono.

It's called following the Constitution, maybe we should try it again. We just might finally turn back from being a ruthless rogue state to a nation of laws yet.

Read much much more on this ongoing tragedy from the ACLU's Freedom of Information Files.

Vyan

Update: As Some have noted in the comments this decision may only apply to this particular detainee, or "non-violent" combatants, but since some of the decision remains currently classified exactly what it's full ramifications will be are currently unclear, however what matters is ultimate what the SCOTUS decides and that isn't strictly limited by the DC Appeals ruling. Hamdan only applied to Hamdan (pre SCOTUS), until it didn't (After SCOTUS).

P.S. Bush can't Pardon Himself.


Thursday, June 19

Obama Jumps Ahead in Florida

As reported last night by Keith Olbermann, Barack Obama has been increasing and extending his Electoral lead over John McCain by leaps and bounds.



Just look at this map from Electoral Vote.com.



That's 344 Electoral Votes for Obama to 194 for McCain. Things are looking up, but what is becoming inceasingly clear is that this electoral lead is built on some rather short stilts.

Since my last diary on this when Obama had a 304 to 221 Electoral Lead, he's broken the tie that existed in Virginia and pulled ahead in Florida which has created the following upward trend.



If that was good news then, this picture should make us ecstatic. Even Poblana's numbers over at fivethirtyeight.com are starting to look ridiculously rosey with Obama likely hood of winning up to 74%



However the problem is with all of this are those barely Democratic State states where Obama is now leading. The margins are wafer thin.


    Nevada Down by 2 - Obama 42% - McCain 44% (Mason-Dixon June 11)

    New Mexico is Tied - Obama 44% - McCain 44% (Survey USA May 18)

    Missouri Up by 1 - Obama 43% - McCain 42% (Rasmussen June 03)

    Virginia Up by 1 - Obama 45% - McCain 44% (Rasmussen June 12)

    Michigan Up by 3 - Obama 45% - McCain 42% (Rasmussen June 09)

    Ohio Up by 6 - Obama 48% - McCain 42% (Quinnipiac June 16)

    Florida Up by 5 - Obama 49% - McCain 44% (ARG June 17)


With races this tight in this many states what were really seeing on my day by day electoral chart may only be the high-point of a treachorous roller coaster ride that will last for the next five months.

As Gallup's daily tracking on candidate popularity indicates, we've finally left the hunnymoon stage and things have begun to stabilize with Obama in a slight lead.



We simply are not seeing the same kind of ballistic trajectory in support for Obama that the Electoral Map seems to indicate, so although I was quite enthusiastic about this when Obama took Michigan - I'm more cautious now. What I don't see is him extending his lead in this crucial states, turning all the Light Blue states in to Royal and eventually a nice Dark Navy. That might happen and it might not, but at this rate we're going to need a couple more Dark Navy states before November - or we could be in for a big scary fall.

Vyan

Wednesday, June 18

Friday, June 13

Obama Surges Ahead

You're not likely to hear this in the corporate media, but as of yesterday Obama has taken a massive lead on McCain in the one area that truly matters.

The Electoral College (via Electoral-Vote.com)

After finally moving ahead in Michigan, and following some corrections on Indiana, Barack Obama is turning five former Red States Blue (Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Missouri & Ohio) and now has a 304 to 221 Electoral Vote Lead over John McCain.

The media would have you believe this is still a fairly close race. If you were to look at the various Gallup Polls between Obama and McCain.

Gallup says that Obama's General Election Numbers are only ahead of McCain by 6 points.

Gallup says that Obama's favorability is only 2 points ahead of McCain's.

Gallup says that Obama is also only leading with independents by 2 points.

But things get a little interesting when Gallup also says that there are clearly more Democrats than either Republicans or Independents

And that a higher percentage Independents apparently plan to Vote for Obama, than for McCain.

If you looked purely at these numbers you wouldn't really see anything all that impressive, but going back through the compilation of state-by-state electoral data that's been made available on Electoral-Vote.com and you get a very different picture.

When McCain secured the Republican nomination he held a significant lead over candidate Obama peaking at 324 to 205, but as Obama moved closer to nomination things became more competitive. Rev. Wrong, Bitter-gate and the Working Class White Voters of Kentucky clearly did some damage in early May, but on May 24th just two days after his win in the Oregon Primary, Obama took a 266 to 248 lead over McCain. This lead was extended on June 3rd after the final Democratic Primaries in Puerto Rico 287 to 227 and has held steady until now where he's moved ahead to 304 to 221.

Technically Electoral-Vote.com (whose main page has been down while I've been composing this post - possibly due to an overload after my last diary on them) is still behind on data for Virginia and has it listed as a tie. however, the underlying poll data shows that Survey USA puts Obama ahead in Virginia by 7 points as of May 18th (The data also shows that New Mexico is a tie!) If you then grant Obama those additional 13 Electoral Votes (and subtract 5 for New Mexico) his actual lead grows even further to 312 to 221 - 90 votes ahead of McCain and 40 Votes ahead of what he needs to become President.

Of course there are no guarantees that the map will continue to look this good for Obama - things could certainly change as they already have several times - but right now, I like the way the trend is looking.

Vyan

Update:Let me just point out that this is not a call to Get Cocky about our chances in November. John Kerry held an even greater lead than this on EVote.com and still managed to lose both Ohio and Florida. In Obama's case what the map shows is that he is barely ahead in five states, Ohio, Wisconsin, Missouri, Michigan and New Mexico (although more recent data shows he is tied in New Mexico and barely ahead in Virginia) the point remains that he will also LOSE if he doesn't solidify his current position in those states. He needs at least 3 out of 5 to win, but 5 out of 5 is better. These are the places he's winning and are putting him over the top, but it's also where he's vulnerable.

Vyan

Tuesday, June 10

This is where the Real Presidential Race Begins.

With the final concession and endorsement of Hillary Clinton, the Nomination process has ended and the General Election has finally begun.

So, as we start the last leg in the fight for the White House just where do we stand with Obama v McCain?

Although they been battling it out in the polls for months, the latest indications from Gallup are that as of this week Barack Obama has pulled into the lead ahead of John McCain 48% to 42%.

The problem of course with this poll and much of the talk in the corporate media pitting one demographic group against another (young voters vs old voters, educated vs uneducated, black vs women, men vs women) is the fact the we don't elect our President based on national or demographic polls - in the long run none of that data really matters.

What matters is the Electoral college, and it's when we look at that map that things get a tad more interesting.

As of today Electoral-Vote.com shows the national map as follows, with Barack Obama leading in enough states to give him a 287 to 227 Electoral Vote Victory over John McCain.

Click to View Fullsize

(Looking closely I have found some errors on the main map. According to the completely list of source polls - McCain and Obama are not tied in Indiana and Virginia as the map indicates.

An April 24th Poll from Research 2000 indicates that McCain leads Obama in Indiana by 51% to 43%, a May 18th poll from Survey USA shows that Obama leads McCain in Virginia by 49% to 42% and that New Mexico is a tie at 44% each - therefore the correct Electoral Math should be Obama 295, McCain 238.)

Even with corrections the Map shows Obama winning five states that John Kerry failed to carry in 2004, and only losing in one - Michigan.

These are the Battleground States for 2008

Colorado - Obama by 6%

Iowa - Obama by 9%

Virginia - Obama by 7%

Ohio - Obama by 9%

Missouri - Obama by 1%

New Mexico - Tied

Michigan - McCain by 4%

South Carolina - McCain by 3%

As you can see by the graphs, the fight has already been fairly volatile in these states and that the 48/42 split indicated by Gallup on the national level is hardly reflected at all on local state-by-state polls. With his current electoral lead, Obama could afford to fall behind and lose his lead in one or two three of these contests (in addition to Michigan and South Carolina where he trails slightly) by November and still reach the 270 votes needed to become the next President of the United States - but if he should fall behind in three or four of these states McCain could win. The question of course is just how likely is that to happen, particularly with the continued rebellion of the Hillacrats such as those who frequent Hillaryis44.com such as Taylor Marsh?

I will not fall in line for the sake of unity for someone who puts Ronald Reagan above Bill Clinton, and uses his campaign to attack, malign and misrepresent a president that with all his faults, gave his very best for his country, left it in thriving economic health, with our reputation around the world at its highest, with middle class people everywhere in better shape than when he arrived. I also will not support anyone who casts aspersions on a woman running for president by implying she cannot win his supporters, or that she can’t be trusted with secret intelligence, a right-wing talking point about Democrats that goes back to my Reagan Democrat days when the GOP let loose with the line that Democrats were "soft on national security," something they’ve been selling ever since.

I’m a proud Democrat, but I’m an American first. If you want unity you’ve come to the wrong place.

People like this are not who Barack can depend on to maintain his lead, and to pick up votes in states where he currently trails. However the question remains, if Barack losses these people - does it hurt him where it matters?

If you look at the Map of Primary wins for Barack Obama below - (taken from CNN's Delegate Calculator) it really doesn't appear to be a problem.

Of the eight key battleground states - Barack prevailed in the primary in all but Ohio, Michigan and New Mexico. He won a huge swatch of southern states including both North and South Carolina, and he won nearly all of the pacific northwest softening some of McCain's support in North Dakota. The truth is that if Obama loses support in New York and California due to disgruntled Hillary supporters - it's not going turn those states over to McCain. It might hurt him in Ohio - he could lose there - but then if he continues to hold what he already has he still has 275 Electoral Votes (270 needed to win), which means that he doesn't absolutely need Ohio, or Florida for that matter. It would be good to win both Ohio and Michigan, but he doesn't have to.

As it stands right now, I like our chances. All we have to do is bring it home.

Vyan

Sunday, June 8

Obama Pep Talk with Staffers