Obama Jumps Ahead in Florida

As reported last night by Keith Olbermann, Barack Obama has been increasing and extending his Electoral lead over John McCain by leaps and bounds.



Just look at this map from Electoral Vote.com.



That's 344 Electoral Votes for Obama to 194 for McCain. Things are looking up, but what is becoming inceasingly clear is that this electoral lead is built on some rather short stilts.

Since my last diary on this when Obama had a 304 to 221 Electoral Lead, he's broken the tie that existed in Virginia and pulled ahead in Florida which has created the following upward trend.



If that was good news then, this picture should make us ecstatic. Even Poblana's numbers over at fivethirtyeight.com are starting to look ridiculously rosey with Obama likely hood of winning up to 74%



However the problem is with all of this are those barely Democratic State states where Obama is now leading. The margins are wafer thin.

Nevada Down by 2 - Obama 42% - McCain 44% (Mason-Dixon June 11)

New Mexico is Tied - Obama 44% - McCain 44% (Survey USA May 18)

Missouri Up by 1 - Obama 43% - McCain 42% (Rasmussen June 03)

Virginia Up by 1 - Obama 45% - McCain 44% (Rasmussen June 12)

Michigan Up by 3 - Obama 45% - McCain 42% (Rasmussen June 09)

Ohio Up by 6 - Obama 48% - McCain 42% (Quinnipiac June 16)

Florida Up by 5 - Obama 49% - McCain 44% (ARG June 17)

With races this tight in this many states what were really seeing on my day by day electoral chart may only be the high-point of a treachorous roller coaster ride that will last for the next five months.

As Gallup's daily tracking on candidate popularity indicates, we've finally left the hunnymoon stage and things have begun to stabilize with Obama in a slight lead.



We simply are not seeing the same kind of ballistic trajectory in support for Obama that the Electoral Map seems to indicate, so although I was quite enthusiastic about this when Obama took Michigan - I'm more cautious now. What I don't see is him extending his lead in this crucial states, turning all the Light Blue states in to Royal and eventually a nice Dark Navy. That might happen and it might not, but at this rate we're going to need a couple more Dark Navy states before November - or we could be in for a big scary fall.

Vyan