With the final concession and endorsement of Hillary Clinton, the Nomination process has ended and the General Election has finally begun.
So, as we start the last leg in the fight for the White House just where do we stand with Obama v McCain?
Although they been battling it out in the polls for months, the latest indications from Gallup are that as of this week Barack Obama has pulled into the lead ahead of John McCain 48% to 42%.
The problem of course with this poll and much of the talk in the corporate media pitting one demographic group against another (young voters vs old voters, educated vs uneducated, black vs women, men vs women) is the fact the we don't elect our President based on national or demographic polls - in the long run none of that data really matters.
What matters is the Electoral college, and it's when we look at that map that things get a tad more interesting.
As of today Electoral-Vote.com shows the national map as follows, with Barack Obama leading in enough states to give him a 287 to 227 Electoral Vote Victory over John McCain.
(Looking closely I have found some errors on the main map. According to the completely list of source polls - McCain and Obama are not tied in Indiana and Virginia as the map indicates.
An April 24th Poll from Research 2000 indicates that McCain leads Obama in Indiana by 51% to 43%, a May 18th poll from Survey USA shows that Obama leads McCain in Virginia by 49% to 42% and that New Mexico is a tie at 44% each - therefore the correct Electoral Math should be Obama 295, McCain 238.)
Even with corrections the Map shows Obama winning five states that John Kerry failed to carry in 2004, and only losing in one - Michigan.
These are the Battleground States for 2008
As you can see by the graphs, the fight has already been fairly volatile in these states and that the 48/42 split indicated by Gallup on the national level is hardly reflected at all on local state-by-state polls. With his current electoral lead, Obama could afford to fall behind and lose his lead in one or two three of these contests (in addition to Michigan and South Carolina where he trails slightly) by November and still reach the 270 votes needed to become the next President of the United States - but if he should fall behind in three or four of these states McCain could win. The question of course is just how likely is that to happen, particularly with the continued rebellion of the Hillacrats such as those who frequent Hillaryis44.com such as Taylor Marsh?
I will not fall in line for the sake of unity for someone who puts Ronald Reagan above Bill Clinton, and uses his campaign to attack, malign and misrepresent a president that with all his faults, gave his very best for his country, left it in thriving economic health, with our reputation around the world at its highest, with middle class people everywhere in better shape than when he arrived. I also will not support anyone who casts aspersions on a woman running for president by implying she cannot win his supporters, or that she can’t be trusted with secret intelligence, a right-wing talking point about Democrats that goes back to my Reagan Democrat days when the GOP let loose with the line that Democrats were "soft on national security," something they’ve been selling ever since.
I’m a proud Democrat, but I’m an American first. If you want unity you’ve come to the wrong place.
People like this are not who Barack can depend on to maintain his lead, and to pick up votes in states where he currently trails. However the question remains, if Barack losses these people - does it hurt him where it matters?
If you look at the Map of Primary wins for Barack Obama below - (taken from CNN's Delegate Calculator) it really doesn't appear to be a problem.
Of the eight key battleground states - Barack prevailed in the primary in all but Ohio, Michigan and New Mexico. He won a huge swatch of southern states including both North and South Carolina, and he won nearly all of the pacific northwest softening some of McCain's support in North Dakota. The truth is that if Obama loses support in New York and California due to disgruntled Hillary supporters - it's not going turn those states over to McCain. It might hurt him in Ohio - he could lose there - but then if he continues to hold what he already has he still has 275 Electoral Votes (270 needed to win), which means that he doesn't absolutely need Ohio, or Florida for that matter. It would be good to win both Ohio and Michigan, but he doesn't have to.
As it stands right now, I like our chances. All we have to do is bring it home.
Vyan
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