This week Senator John Warner timidly spoke out on the issue of troop reductions in Iraq by the end of year only to be savagely attacked by a White House front group.
(Warner's Comments) Hurt the Cause of Freedom
But a careful reading of the latest NIE indicates that not only is Warner right, pulling back out troops and letting the Iraqis regain control of their own country just might be the best thing for them, and for us.
Those who support the escalation say it's "Too soon to judge" , or that we should "Stretch out the Surge for another year" like say - Bill "When have I ever been right?" Kristol - and we shouldn't get too far ahead of the Patreaus President's Report in September, but we have had several months of Surge now and it seems that various trends our emerging that can give us a fair indication of the future.
Point One: There has been some decreased violence in the al-Anbar province, and most of us on either side of the surge issue hope that such progress can be repeated - but the one thing that is clear is that has occured in Anbar isn't the result of "the Surge"
Until only a few months ago, the Central Street bazaar was enemy territory, watched over by U.S. machine-gunners in sandbagged bunkers on the roof of the governor's building across the road. Ramadi was the most dangerous city in Iraq, and the area around the building the deadliest place in Ramadi.
Now, a pact between local tribal sheiks and U.S. commanders has sent thousands of young Iraqis from Anbar Province into the fight against extremists linked to Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. The deal has all but ended the fighting in Ramadi and recast the city as a symbol of hope that the tide of the war may yet be reversed to favor the Americans and their Iraqi allies.
Anbar has been a success, but not because or an increase in U.S. Forces in the area of because the Iraqi Military has finally at long last "stood up", it's been because the U.S. has begun to use -- gasp --- diplomacy with the local leaders and used the Sunni Militia to route out Al Qeaeda.
Point Two: Some of the Anbar Success, beside actually being the result of an American De-escalation in the region, may also be the result of some other rather grim factors.
Large Numbers of Iraqis have Fled their homes.
BAGHDAD, Aug. 23 — The number of Iraqis fleeing their homes has soared since the American troop increase began in February, according to data from two humanitarian groups, accelerating the partition of the country into sectarian enclaves.
The data track what are known as internally displaced Iraqis: those who have been driven from their neighborhoods and seek refuge elsewhere in the country rather than fleeing across the border. The effect of this vast migration is to drain religiously mixed areas in the center of Iraq, sending Shiite refugees toward the overwhelmingly Shiite areas to the south and Sunnis toward majority Sunni regions to the west and north.
Though most displaced Iraqis say they would like to return, there is little prospect of their doing so. One Sunni Arab who had been driven out of the Baghdad neighborhood of southern Dora by Shiite snipers said she doubted that her family would ever return, buildup or no buildup.
The polarization of communities is most evident in Baghdad, where the Shia are a clear majority in more than half of all neighborhoods and Sunni areas have become surrounded by predominately Shia districts. Where population displacements have led to significant sectarian separation, conflict levels have diminished to some extent because warring communities find it more difficult to penetrate communal enclaves.
In short, Shia Militia who the Sunnis may want to battle with have moved away and vice versa. They have self-segregated and essentially broken themselves up into neutral corners in a practice that is somewhat similar to the Joe Biden partition plan (which was most successful in Bosnia), but rather than artificially carving up the country like a Turkey, the residents have been gradually finding and creating their own (relatively) safe sectarian havens.
Again, the process may ultimately be inevitable and has not much to do with us - other than the fact that our presense slows it down and our leaving an area just might spur it forward.
"[F]earing a Coalition withdrawal, some tribal elements and Sunni groups probably will continue to seek accommodation with the Coalition to strengthen themselves for a post- Coalition security environment" [...]
"The IC assesses that the emergence of ‘bottom-up’ security initiatives, principally among Sunni Arabs and focused on combating AQI, represent the best prospect for improved security over the next six to 12 months, but we judge these initiatives will only translate into widespread political accommodation and enduring stability if the Iraqi Government accepts and supports them."
Just as John Murtha has stated for well over a year and a half, what Anbar has shown is that the Iraqis won't stand up until they see they have no choice, and ultimately it's not up to their government to decide that they want peace and they don't al-Qeada - it's up to the people.
There is some strong possibility that heavily Shia influenced Maliki government may resist greater and greater areas of Iraq becoming controlled by Sunni Militias, but ultimately they have to be shown that they have no choice.
Eventually the Reality of their Surroundings will come crashing in and the Surge/Delaying Tactic of the Bush Administration will gradually come to an end.
And another segment of that reality is that rank and file Iraqis have had it up to here with Al Qeada in Iraq.
Many Sunnis, for their part, are less inclined to see the soldiers as occupiers now that it is clear that American troop reductions are all but inevitable, and they are more concerned with strengthening their ability to fend off threats from Sunni jihadists and Shiite militias. In a surprising twist, the jihadists — the Americans’ most ardent foes — made the new strategy possible. Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, a predominantly Iraqi organization with a small but significant foreign component, severely overplayed its hand, spawning resentment by many residents and other insurgent groups.
Imposing a severe version of Islamic law, the group installed its own clerics, established an Islamic court and banned the sale of cigarettes, which even this week were nowhere to be found in the humble shops in western Baquba to the consternation of patrolling Iraqi troops.
The fighters raised funds by kidnapping local Iraqis, found accommodations by evicting some residents from their homes and killed with abandon when anyone got in their way, residents say. A small group of bearded black-clad militants took down the Iraqi flag and raised the banner of their self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq.
"They used religion as a ploy to get in and exploit people’s passions," said one member of the Kit Carson scouts, who gave his name as Haidar. "They were Iraqis and other Arabs from Syria, Afghanistan, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. They started kicking people out of their houses and getting ransom from rich people. They would shoot people in front of their houses to scare the others."
After attempting to draw incorrect comparisons to World War II and Neville Chamberlain, to the occupation of Japan, our continuing troop presense on the North/South Korean border and most recently to the Boat People and Killing Fields of Vietnam and Cambodia (both of which have already occured in Iraq wear upwards of 600,000 people have effectively "disappeared" and another 1.5 Million have fled the country during our occupation) the Bush Administration has now run out bad similes.
Iraq has already had their "Killing Fields" Mr. Bush, now they're literally starting to run out of people to kill - except of course, us.
Instead of claiming we need to stay in Iraq in order to help facilitate a political reconcilation between the waring factions - they now say that reconcilation doesn't matter and that the goal of the surge was simply to bring security to Iraq.
Yeah, right.
All indications are that over the next six months we will have to begin drawing down forces simply becuase - we've run out of forces.
Administration and military officials say Marine Gen. Peter Pace is likely to convey concerns by the Joint Chiefs that keeping well in excess of 100,000 troops in Iraq through 2008 will severely strain the military. This assessment could collide with one being prepared by the U.S. commander in Iraq, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, calling for the U.S. to maintain higher troop levels for 2008 and beyond.
...
According to administration and military officials, the Joint Chiefs believe it is of crucial strategic importance to reduce the size of the U.S. force in Iraq in order to bolster the military's ability to respond to other threats, a view that is shared by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates.
According to a senior administration official, the Joint Chiefs in recent weeks have pressed concerns that the Iraq war has degraded the U.S. military's ability to respond, if needed, to other threats, such as Iran.
My expectations are that rather than recognizing that the success in Anbar has been because our forces left and put a bullseye on their own backs in Baghdad, rather than implementing a draft to relieve and replenish our troops, rather than paying attention to the joint chiefs who are clearly echoeing Senator Warner (not to mention Senator Reid and Speaker Pelosi) that we must draw down our troops in Iraq for the sake of our military readiness - or for that matter to actually listening to General Patreaus and continuing to implement the Anbar Strategy - the White House is going to do what they always do, which is bury their head deeper into their continuing paranoid mass delusion and order a further extension of troops tours from 15 months to 18 months.
Because that will really do wonders for the Suicides and rampant PTSD our troops are already suffering from in record numbers.
It could be wrong of course, but if there's anyone who you can count on to do the stupid thing in a bad situation when all reasonable roads lead elsewhere - it's George W. Bush.
On thing is for certain, Democrats and Republicans alike who no longer support this War or this Escalation need to stop letting themselves be painted as weak, traitors, losers, cutters, runners and cowards. They need to argue from a position of strength, from of position of courage. The reality and the facts are one their side - they need to point out that sometimes the most courageous thing you can do - sometimes what you just have to do - is to simply walk away.
Vyan
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