The Gun is Smoking: Ohio Exit Poll Data Provides Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount

By the National Election Data Archive (NEDA) Summary: New analysis of the precinct-level Ohio exit poll data provides virtually irrefutable evidence of large scale vote miscounts in Ohio during the 2004 presidential election. 6% of Ohio's exit-polled precincts had impossible vote counts and 57% had significant discrepancies (a less than 5% chance of occurring in any one precinct). The pattern of Ohio's exit poll results is not consistent with any exit poll error hypothesis. However, it is consistent with pro-Bush vote miscounts.The full paper "The Gun is Smoking: Ohio Precinct-level Exit Poll Data Show Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount" is available at http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/OH/ohio-exit-polls-2004.pdf In two Ohio precincts, even if all voters who did not complete exit polls had voted for Bush, the total Bush vote count would have been less than the official count. In a third precinct, all voters who did not complete exit polls would have had to vote for Bush to equal the official count. Unless Bush voters lied much more than Kerry voters on exit polls, or massive exit poll error occurred that was not detected by the pollsters, the results are mathematically impossible.The Ohio exit poll data are a smoking gun for vote miscounts in Ohio. Ohio exit poll results are consistent with earlier findings of similar unexplained and implausible exit poll discrepancies in the national exit poll sample as described in the January 21, 2005 Edison/Mitofsky report.

More...