Al Qaeda in Iraq Defeated!?

From the Wapo.

The U.S. military believes it has dealt devastating and perhaps irreversible blows to al-Qaeda in Iraq in recent months, leading some generals to advocate a declaration of victory over the group, which the Bush administration has long described as the most lethal U.S. adversary in Iraq.

Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, head of the Joint Special Operations Command’s operations in Iraq, is the chief promoter of a victory declaration and believes that AQI has been all but eliminated, the military intelligence official said.

So can we bring our troops home now?

But Adm. William J. Fallon, the chief of U.S. Central Command, which oversees Iraq and the rest of the Middle East, is urging restraint, the official said. The military intelligence official, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity about Iraq assessments and strategy.

Apparently not.

Just as many determinations coming out of Iraq in the last few years have been contradictory, this particular view is no exception.

From Thinkprogress.

The Congressional Research Service recently warned U.S. commanders have increasingly "seemed to equate AQ-I with the insurgency, even though most of the daily attacks are carried out by Iraqi Sunni insurgents." Gen. James Jones, the author of detailed report on Iraqi security forces, said that 98 percent of more of the fighting is an internal civil conflict among Iraqis.

If 98 percent of the violence is coming from the Sunni Insurgency, and that Insurgency as we've seen in Anbar Province has begun to turn against AQ-I, then most of "our job" really does appear to be done. Excepting of course for the Shiite Death Squads and the increasing unease among the largely Shia' and Iran supported Iraqi government at the increasing rise of Sunni influence and control.

The administration’s "Anbar strategy" holds the perilous possibility "that we just end up arming the Sunnis, who still hate the Shi’a...and that eventually the Sunni tribes end up fighting it out with the central government." Echoing this concern, the largest Shiite political coalition in Iraq urged the U.S. military to "abandon its recruitment of Sunni tribesmen into the Iraqi police."

Yeah, that plan seems to be working to perfection doesn't it?

Admittedly the deja vu factor of this declaration is not just a figment of your imagination - particularly since Gen McChrystal happens to be the exact same person who originally recommended that "Major Combat Operations" in Iraq had been completed in April of 2003.

"I would anticipate that the major combat engagements are over," Maj. Gen. Stanley McChrystal told reporters at a Pentagon briefing. He said U.S. forces are moving into a phase of "smaller, albeit sharper fights."

Maybe all of this might be better understood if we look at recent statements by the former commander of Iraqi Forces when that original "Mission Accomplished" banner was raised - Lt. Gen Ricardo Sanchez.

"There was been a glaring and unfortunate display of incompetent strategic leadership within our national leaders," he said, adding later in his remarks that civilian officials have been "derelict in their duties" and guilty of a "lust for power."

Iraq is a living nightmare with no end in sight.

"National leadership continues to believe that victory can be achieved by military power alone," he said. "Continued manipulations and adjustments to our military strategy will not achieve victory. The best we can do with this flawed approach is stave off defeat."

Asked after his remarks what strategy he favored, General Sanchez ticked off a series of steps — from promoting reconciliation among Iraq’s warring sectarian factions to building effective Iraqi army and police units — that closely paralleled the list of tasks frequently cited by the Bush administration.

But he said that the administration had failed to craft a detailed strategy for achieving those steps that went beyond the use of military force.

The only reason logically to make such a declaration that Al Qaeda in Iraq has been Defeated would be in preparation for a full scale pull out of our troops. Declare Victory and Leave, but since everything politically argues that it's to the advantage of the Bush Administration to prolong this conflict until the end of his term, declaring "Victory" now is about as likely as Gen. Petreaus winning the Nobel Peace Prize!.

Looking at all sides of the arguement, it is clearly true as Gen Sanchez points out that our military strategy has been doomed without a coresponding diplomatic effort - however it's also apparent that despite that failure, and regardless of The Surge, Sunni Insurgent forces decided long ago and largely on their own to turn to "our side" and begin to battle back against Al Qeada.

If the measly 1000 or so fighters who represent Al Qeada in Iraq are finally on the verge of defeat it will not be seen as a victory for America, it will be the validation of the ascendency of Sunni power in the region - and situation that already has the Shia led government of Iraq quaking in their boots.

The battle with Al Qaeda may indeed be soon over - if it isn't already as Gen McChrystal suggests - but if so the battle between Sunni and Shia's for control of the nation of Iraq is only just beginning.

Vyan