Friday, June 8

Surge Suppression: New Intel Report says the Escalation will Fail

It's not like we've ever gotten the truth out of intellegence agencies - except for when they told the President that Iraq probably wouldn't use WMD unless we provoked them, or that invading Iraq would create a nightmare of sectarian violence which would bolster recruitment efforts of al-Qaeada - this time we have a new report that indicates that the escalation is unlikely to either quell the previously predicted sectarian strife, nor is it likely to aid political reconciliation within the civil war-torn nation.

As revealed by Sen. Evan Bayh during the War Czar confirmation hearings:

Their overall consensus was that the trend in Iraq is negative.

...steps toward reconciliation — the political steps — would be marginal at best through the end of this calendar year.

... the insurgency — the level of violence and that sort of thing — was in all likelihood going to be about where it is today a year from now.

So much for waiting until "September ends..."

Bayh's comments were descriptions of a closed-door session between top U.s. intelligence officials and the Senate Armed Services Committee

Bayh quoted “the top CIA expert on radical Islam,” who told him recently that the U.S. presence in Iraq is generating more terrorists:

[I]n his opinion, our presence in Iraq is creating more members of Al Qaida than we are killing in Iraq.

This happens to match what the would-be Czar himself had to say.

President Bush's nominee to be war czar said yesterday that conditions in Iraq have not improved significantly despite the influx of U.S. troops in recent months and predicted that, absent major political reform, violence will continue to rage over the next year.

Lute's dour assessment mirrored the views of U.S. intelligence officials, who told the Senate Armed Services Committee in a closed session last month that trends in Iraq remain negative and that the prospect for political movement by the nation's feuding Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds appears marginal.

All the above are largely echoes of the Iraq National Intelligence Estimate which was released this past February, prior to The Surge &trade.

-The term "civil war" "accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict," though it "does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict":

-Iran is "not likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability":

-"Rapid withdrawal" of U.S. forces would likely lead to a "significant increase in the scale and scope of sectarian conflict in Iraq":

Yet again we have proof that there is No Military Solution to Iraq. We really don't need to keep letting them kill us over there, so they don't come and kill us over here. This isn't to say the fight is lost, only that we're fighting on the wrong battlefield and need to move from force of arms, to force of ideas.

Unfortunately, our biggest problem remains who the person decidering those ideas happens to be.

Vyan

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