New Evidence that Kerry won Ohio?

From a recent Dailykos diary - which indicates that a precinct level analysis of the deviation between the exit poll data and recorded vote counts was so far out-of-wack that the result was statistically impossible to have been reached accidentally.

Researchers at NEDA (The National Election Data Archive), promote their analyses as...

...based on the most accurate statistical method yet devised for determining whether exit poll error, random variations, or vote count manipulation cause the discrepancies between exit polls and official vote tallies. This analysis method was made public recently by NEDA in "Vote Miscounts or Exit Poll Error? New Mathematical Function for Analyzing Exit Poll Discrepancy" available at http://electionarchive.org/...

The numbers (Highlights):

Exit Polls were conducted in 49 of Ohio's 11,360 precincts. At least 40% of Ohio's polled precincts show statistically significant differences between Kerry's exit poll percent and official vote count percent. 35% of these discrepancies underestimated the Kerry official vote share. This is five times the number expected. Three of the most glaring examples are:

1. In E/M precinct 27, with an estimated 100 respondents, Kerry's official vote count was 29% less than his exit poll share, creating a 58% difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote margins. There is less than a one in 867,205,500 chance of this occurring due to chance.

2. In E/M precinct 25, with an estimated 62 respondents, Kerry's official vote count was 28% less than his exit poll share, creating a 56% difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote margins. There is less than a one in 234,800 chance of this occurring due to chance.

3. In E/M precinct 48, with an estimated 100 respondents, Kerry's official vote was 16% less than his exit poll share, creating a 32% difference between Kerry and Bush exit poll and official vote margins. There is less than a one in 17,800 chance of this occurring due to chance.

NEDA's Conclusion:

Ohio's exit poll discrepancy pattern is consistent with a hypothesis of outcome-altering vote miscounts primarily favoring Bush. In other words, Ohio's exit poll discrepancies are consistent with the hypothesis that Kerry would have won Ohio's electoral votes if Ohio's official vote counts had accurately reflected voter intent. The patterns of Ohio's exit poll discrepancies are similar to the patterns in the national exit poll sample shown in the January 19, 2005 Edison/Mitofsky (E/M) report and discussed in earlier USCV reports.

Ohio's exit poll discrepancies vary with official precinct vote share in ways that cannot be fully explained by any "reluctant Bush responder" or exit poll error hypothesis offered to date.

LINKS:

The Gun is Smoking - 2004 Ohio Precinct-Level Exit Poll Data Show Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount

The Research Paper (PDF)

U.S. Vote Counts site

Now this result doesn't particularly surprise me, but what it does unfortunately show is that shameless election jury-rigging by the right-wing has become quite brazen - their sheer audacity defies belief, and it's that very disbelief that protects them from any major scrutiny, making anyone who seriuosly suggests that yet again - this election may have been stolen sound like members of the tin-foil hat club.

Don't get me wrong, I certainly remain doubtful that such a thing is truly possible - but then again, what other reasonable explaination can there be for such gross discrepancies? Obviously this issue needs to be looked at and address with better auditing capabilties and features.

Problem is, that's the last thing that's forthcoming between now and Nov '06.

Vyan